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I meant the question as more of a hypothetical: i.e. Can he open a bunch of lightning channels and would that make spending easier?

Is that how you meant your answer?

I take the aggregation point: total Lightning capacity is what, 4,000 BTC... kind of hard to just double that

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What's the rush?

What I'm wondering is just whether this is a viable way to use or move the loot.

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patience is a crazy important virtue for a scammer like this. UTXOs strictly watched right now; everyone will have forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.

Sit on it, single-sig, don't fucking touch for a decade etc. Wait for the world to catch up (such that 600 or 4000 BTC while a great sum, wouldn't be unheard of -- large funds transacting, Middle Eastern sov funds making txs etc)

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forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.

huh? It's literally 1 row in a database over at chainalysis. No one will forget. Wait 10 years get caught in 10 years.

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...and then someone deletes the spreadsheet; Chainalysis gets bought up by Google, archives get lost in a restructuring; new hacks turn everyone's attention that way; Congress passes some law and they scrap monitoring of old addresses now presumed lost; some new Bitcoin tech obfuscation technique rises to the top (e.g., like Samourai/Whirlpool a few years back).

Ten years is loooong in Bitcoin times. Lots can happen

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Samurai was a what? They kept all records of every wash ever made and every future outkey of the known washes derivable, and the feds seized the server lmao.

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eeeeeeh, mayhaps. I need a refresher here of what, exactly, a laundered UTXO from theirs is exposed to

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Everything? The feds got the server that had all the xpubs. If you have the xpubs you can derive every address and group together who did what through each coinjoin, including entries and exits. It is total deanonymization and if anything you ever did with that coin ends up on anything that can be traced to you. Say... bought a bitrefill coupon with your washed sats for Uber and then you took a ride, then you're not only doxxed on the ride, you're doxxed for every sat you ever washed, including where it came from and where you spent it to.

So, very poor example. You can make up other examples which will be harder to take down but this one is extremely poor.

I gave supratic a one-liner this morning to see if it moves

bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' | jq '.total_amount'

Thus, on your raspi with core you can do

bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' \
  | jq '.total_amount | floor' \
  | xargs echo "0 == 598 - " \
  | bc

and then evaluate that; if it returns 1 it means it didn't move and if it is 0 it means it moved.

Now you put that into a crontab, bake an if [[ $outcome -eq 0 ]]; then send_me_email.sh; fi around it and you too are now a $50 cost-basis superspy worth gazillions, just like chainalysis.

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...with the capacity to do absolutely nada.

But ok, take your point that it's an exceedingly low bar to monitor. Still, will anyone actually bother to look/do anything in a decade...?

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Yes someone will. And capacity to do nada - you actually went to conferences and you don't know who to call? tf? Spooks are seeded in the Bitcoin community.

Because we're talking about a stolen 4k BTC. Not created out of thin air, this wasn't a Bitcoin inflation bug. Attackers stole 4k BTC from (a) a federation and (b) the people they were performing custody for. They'll not care?

How filthy rich are y'all to not care about 4k BTC and why haven't you bought The Economist yet?

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How filthy rich are y'all to not care about 4k BTC and why haven't you bought The Economist yet?

I know, it's a tragedy really. Undisc provided some of the owners with an offer and all, but they didn't want dirty criminal money :/

Right now, lots of people who didn't lose funds are paying attention and caring about this story. Those are the people who will not really care about it in the future.

340 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby 8 Sep

I just tried "2011 dormant bitcoin" in the X search bar and got host of recent posts about people moving old bitcoin.

I think it's pretty likely that if a person commits any high-profile theft of bitcoin, there will be plenty of people who notice the moment it moves, even if that moment is 10 years from now.

You can't rely on people forgetting.

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Probably not forgetting, but I doubt they'll be as passionate about it.

Other scandals, perhaps bigger ones, will have happened in the mean time.

That, I think, was the more important point.

At some point, willing partners will emerge, who either are or just believe themselves to be beyond the reach of the law.

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Yes. Its too small to do it quickly and with each new channel open/close the loop will tighten

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What loop is tightening?

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As in if you're a thief and I'm the popo, with every move you make I will learn more about you and eventually I will catch you. And you're going to have to make a lot of moves if you're going to exit through LN. Thousands.

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