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forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.
huh? It's literally 1 row in a database over at chainalysis. No one will forget. Wait 10 years get caught in 10 years.
...and then someone deletes the spreadsheet; Chainalysis gets bought up by Google, archives get lost in a restructuring; new hacks turn everyone's attention that way; Congress passes some law and they scrap monitoring of old addresses now presumed lost; some new Bitcoin tech obfuscation technique rises to the top (e.g., like Samourai/Whirlpool a few years back).
Ten years is loooong in Bitcoin times. Lots can happen
Samurai was a what? They kept all records of every wash ever made and every future outkey of the known washes derivable, and the feds seized the server lmao.
eeeeeeh, mayhaps. I need a refresher here of what, exactly, a laundered UTXO from theirs is exposed to
Everything? The feds got the server that had all the xpubs. If you have the xpubs you can derive every address and group together who did what through each coinjoin, including entries and exits. It is total deanonymization and if anything you ever did with that coin ends up on anything that can be traced to you. Say... bought a bitrefill coupon with your washed sats for Uber and then you took a ride, then you're not only doxxed on the ride, you're doxxed for every sat you ever washed, including where it came from and where you spent it to.
So, very poor example. You can make up other examples which will be harder to take down but this one is extremely poor.
nah, I'll try defending it once more: needle-in-a-haystack, and I'm small and insignificant
The feds may have that info, but they're not looking for me. Indeed, they're single-mindedly focused on like Russian oligarchs and Iranian hackers. Leaked/privacy-losing xpubs from some tx I ran through Whirlpool like 5 years ago -- and which has been moved, spent, Lightning-ized etc -- I'm not so sure is gonna come back and bite me.
(Unless, of course, database leaks and all the world's Kimi k3 are unleashed on it for countless reasons)
Your shit too is mapped. If you're small time, it will only hurt you when you can't use it because you're in trouble for something else. No one gonna waste energy on small fish. But we were talking about 4k BTC. How tf is that small fish for you and why aren't you zapping me bigger, Scrooge 😂
you get appropriate zaps, greedy bastard!
There are enough zap battles going on elsewhere; I ain't playing!
I think this is a frequently under-discussed aspect of bitcoin: the whole point is that the entire transaction graph is visible. Therefore, there is no hoping someone forgets or time obscures things. The transaction graph will always be there to compare against and cross-reference.
Can it be said that the anonymity set of any given utxo only ever degrades from the moment it is included in a block? I'm not sure if that's the right way to think about it, because it might imply that frequently moving coins is good for privacy (which I don't think is the case), but there is something that feels like as more and more becomes known about various utxos, the anonymity of our own utxos dwindles.
I gave supratic a one-liner this morning to see if it moves
bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' | jq '.total_amount'Thus, on your raspi with core you can do
bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' \
| jq '.total_amount | floor' \
| xargs echo "0 == 598 - " \
| bcand then evaluate that; if it returns 1 it means it didn't move and if it is 0 it means it moved.
Now you put that into a crontab, bake an if [[ $outcome -eq 0 ]]; then send_me_email.sh; fi around it and you too are now a $50 cost-basis superspy worth gazillions, just like chainalysis.
...with the capacity to do absolutely nada.
But ok, take your point that it's an exceedingly low bar to monitor. Still, will anyone actually bother to look/do anything in a decade...?
Yes someone will. And capacity to do nada - you actually went to conferences and you don't know who to call? tf? Spooks are seeded in the Bitcoin community.
Because we're talking about a stolen 4k BTC. Not created out of thin air, this wasn't a Bitcoin inflation bug. Attackers stole 4k BTC from (a) a federation and (b) the people they were performing custody for. They'll not care?
How filthy rich are y'all to not care about 4k BTC and why haven't you bought The Economist yet?
How filthy rich are y'all to not care about 4k BTC and why haven't you bought The Economist yet?
I know, it's a tragedy really. Undisc provided some of the owners with an offer and all, but they didn't want dirty criminal money :/
...lose a million out of 1.1m subscribers. THE DEATH OF A HALLOWED INSTUTITION, says the headlines the next day.
Also, we're struggling with the #2 already; see beginning of post!
Right now, lots of people who didn't lose funds are paying attention and caring about this story. Those are the people who will not really care about it in the future.
Sure. So I just gave everyone that was stolen from a $50 solution to not need some $100k a year service to be alerted. And not rely on mempoolspace either. All you need to do is follow any hardforks. Your current software will in lieu of hardforks be capable of following the utxoset, period. Lasting solution.
We can talk down to all that and say it's just a spur of the moment thing and everyone will forget about it. But for every script I write there are a 1000 others like me writing a similar script. And if they aren't then maybe I should make a post and push some inspiration. Because... this is Bitcoin. Not Sheepcoin. Bitcoin dgaf, but Bitcoiners gaf.
Here's the real message tho: I actually know people that will take action on shit like this at my poke. Because they owe me, because they respect me, because we've worked in the past to eradicate predators. So if you're reading this in the future and find that your stolen LBTC is moving and have a hard time getting action, hit me up. I will do my best to get some people moving on it.
I just tried "2011 dormant bitcoin" in the X search bar and got host of recent posts about people moving old bitcoin.
I think it's pretty likely that if a person commits any high-profile theft of bitcoin, there will be plenty of people who notice the moment it moves, even if that moment is 10 years from now.
You can't rely on people forgetting.
Probably not forgetting, but I doubt they'll be as passionate about it.
Other scandals, perhaps bigger ones, will have happened in the mean time.
That, I think, was the more important point.
At some point, willing partners will emerge, who either are or just believe themselves to be beyond the reach of the law.
patience is a crazy important virtue for a scammer like this. UTXOs strictly watched right now; everyone will have forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.
Sit on it, single-sig, don't fucking touch for a decade etc. Wait for the world to catch up (such that 600 or 4000 BTC while a great sum, wouldn't be unheard of -- large funds transacting, Middle Eastern sov funds making txs etc)