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What's stopping him from opening a bunch of lightning channels?

Complexity, counterparty risk, dragnet inevitability.

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I meant the question as more of a hypothetical: i.e. Can he open a bunch of lightning channels and would that make spending easier?

Is that how you meant your answer?

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I take the aggregation point: total Lightning capacity is what, 4,000 BTC... kind of hard to just double that

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What's the rush?

What I'm wondering is just whether this is a viable way to use or move the loot.

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patience is a crazy important virtue for a scammer like this. UTXOs strictly watched right now; everyone will have forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.

Sit on it, single-sig, don't fucking touch for a decade etc. Wait for the world to catch up (such that 600 or 4000 BTC while a great sum, wouldn't be unheard of -- large funds transacting, Middle Eastern sov funds making txs etc)

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forgotten about it/moved on in 10 years.

huh? It's literally 1 row in a database over at chainalysis. No one will forget. Wait 10 years get caught in 10 years.

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...and then someone deletes the spreadsheet; Chainalysis gets bought up by Google, archives get lost in a restructuring; new hacks turn everyone's attention that way; Congress passes some law and they scrap monitoring of old addresses now presumed lost; some new Bitcoin tech obfuscation technique rises to the top (e.g., like Samourai/Whirlpool a few years back).

Ten years is loooong in Bitcoin times. Lots can happen

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Samurai was a what? They kept all records of every wash ever made and every future outkey of the known washes derivable, and the feds seized the server lmao.

I gave supratic a one-liner this morning to see if it moves

bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' | jq '.total_amount'

Thus, on your raspi with core you can do

bitcoin-cli scantxoutset start '["addr(bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte)"]' \
  | jq '.total_amount | floor' \
  | xargs echo "0 == 598 - " \
  | bc

and then evaluate that; if it returns 1 it means it didn't move and if it is 0 it means it moved.

Now you put that into a crontab, bake an if [[ $outcome -eq 0 ]]; then send_me_email.sh; fi around it and you too are now a $50 cost-basis superspy worth gazillions, just like chainalysis.

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...with the capacity to do absolutely nada.

But ok, take your point that it's an exceedingly low bar to monitor. Still, will anyone actually bother to look/do anything in a decade...?

Yes. Its too small to do it quickly and with each new channel open/close the loop will tighten

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What loop is tightening?

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As in if you're a thief and I'm the popo, with every move you make I will learn more about you and eventually I will catch you. And you're going to have to make a lot of moves if you're going to exit through LN. Thousands.

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please elaborate. Also, what's "dragnet inevitability..."?

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The fact that you need an addressable node so eventually you'll be traced by LE.

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no problem, sir... we can just reach out to MRBOND_1. He seems trustworthy

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lol

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That's what I thought you meant, but a node can be anywhere, including places without LE that would care about this.

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There are no places without LE. Name one.

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I didn't say there were

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You didn't, but if there is LE, they can be made to care. With a 4k BTC target on your back, anyone can be made to care. There is no reason anyone in LE wouldn't care about you.

Your IP address is traceable. Your tor key is mappable to your IP address by multiple agencies worldwide (that's the dragnet.) It literally takes a phone call and a credit promise. "We'll do a joint press release".

Thus anything that needs to be addressable will per definition get caught if there's any pattern. And since the list of nodes with proper outbound liquidity is not infinite at all, you're going to run into issues avoiding patterns.

Better just call one of the known scammers in our midsts if they'd like to have 4k BTC at 95% discount. You'll be rid of your burden in no time. And still never have to work again. All thanks to kimi.

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