I'm trying to think through how best to position myself financially.
On the policy front, I'm thinking we're deadlocked for the next 2 years. Democrats probably want to roll back tariffs, but they also don't want anything good to happen while Trump is in office.
I noticed SWBI gained a lot yesterday. Gun manufacturers have typically gone up after Democratic victories on the anticipation that people will buy up guns for fear of stricter gun laws coming down the line. I sold my position after that bump, because I don't know if anything's going to happen there in the near term.
Impeachment proceedings are almost guaranteed. I don't know if that means anything for markets.
What are your predictions for the next 2 years?
You ought to have been working around the politicians already and in this changed situation you ought to do it more. Stalemates will help you get set up for the coming 2.5 years, to protect against further oppression when the stalemate ends.
February 2029 is when you will get fucked over there, no matter who wins. Or, if JD takes over before that, you get fucked differently than you are getting fucked now before that, so some flexibility and backup plans may be less luxurious than it looks.
Your best hope is that Trump finishes his term because that buys you time.
For everyone who is not in the US, the effect of this is mostly a WEF power consolidation and more oppressive motherfuckers will ruin your days if you let them. So don't let them. Meet the new overlord, same as last overlord.
I noticed that @Cje95 took a decent position on Trump not finishing his term, which I assume is related to impeachment. He's the closest thing we have to an insider, so it might be worth watching.
I am currently writing a post about yesterday how it affects me personally as a staffer and what see coming next.... I'll be sure to tag you when it is finished up!
JD Vance could well make the politically smart choice to support impeachment and allow Trump to get removed as it gets him in the big-chair.
The public just may go along with that scheme....
Trump already said he may flee to Israel, so maybe it all works out.
I missed that
November 3, 2026, Trump said this during a telephone interview on Fox News’ Fox & Friends:
Ideal world is Trump moves to Israel to become Prime Minister with Jared at his side, and Dems follow thru with stripping all funding for Israel....
did you forget about Section 219 of the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)? Israel's own plan is to strip overt funding because they don't need it anymore
At this point, I'd be more entertained by Trump being the head of state somewhere else.
Trump for Ayatollah
He did promise to Make Iran Great Again
impeachment is comming...!!
So what? He's already been impeached more times than any other president.
It’s not going to lead anywhere, buuut from what I’ve been reading, the best part is that a lot of dirty laundry would likely come out during the trials—which would further wear down the Republicans. Plus, the votes have to be cast publicly, meaning that if anyone commits a betrayal (on either side), it will be out in the open for everyone to see.
What else could come out? They've had him under investigations constantly for the past decade and nothing particularly interesting has come from it.
I'm actually thinking that JD Vance's best bet for the future of his political career is to secretly orchestrate a removal of Trump, become president for the last 1.5 years of Trump's term, and use that time to try and reinvent the Republican image.
It wouldn't be far-fetched at all...
I agree with that. It would be fun to see.
This could be the first one, for example:
https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mundo/estados-unidos/empresas-vinculadas-a-trump-se-preparan-para-investigaciones-si-los-democratas-ganan-el-congreso/
Impeachment doesn't necessarily mean removal though, which is why I'm hesitant to take a position in the market.
I am endowed with some NOs in that market already, thanks to my past arbitraging of the two markets "Does Trump make it to July 2026" vs "Does Trump finish his 2nd term"
Dems could very well end up with 56 senate seats if they flip AK and MS. That would mean they need 11 votes from the other side to convict and remove the turd. Last impeachment they got 7 Republican votes. They would only need 4 more. I think it is a very real chance they could remove him.
I think there's a real chance too. I just don't know how big.
I'm staying on the No side as well, but the insider seems to think it's a coin-flip.
I was a tad surprised seeing a bitcoin exchange rate jump today. What am I missing??
Inflation expectations!
Ok, cool... But a gridlock/split government won't allow additional spending. What makes you think the banks or Warsh be printing...? And worse: why would a blue wave change that expectation?
Your logic is why I haven't taken extra positions on inflation expectations. But Gold is up big too, so I really do think inflation expectations increased last night.
Not that 8 basis points is a big move but... Eeeh, no?
https://www.macrotrends.net/3019/5-year-breakeven-inflation-rate
Also: the 10y yield slightly up; 30y yield slightly down.
Hmm... I'm not great at interpreting bond yield movements.
Let's see, if people expect inflation to go up, demand for long bonds should go down. Which should push the yields up. The increase in the 10y yield is consistent with that. Not sure how to interpret the 30 year yield.
Same... my point tho is that there's obvs not a clear inflation expectation move. (Maybe will be, but they you can always argue some other cause.)
And if anything, moves are microscopic. Markets be like, BOOORRRRING!
And bond market is definitely the boringest of them all.
maybe the jump is just a return to the trend? Maybe leading up to the election people sold on the expectation that there would be a dump. Then, post election they bought because they wanted to get back into their positions? (I'm no financial guy though, so who knows)
how to long NGOs...
Good question. ETFs for beneficiary countries?
Or start writing BS grant applications
I'm trying to look to how to reduce the amount of research on my plate
Solar might get big again
Yes, the ESG trade could be back on..... but probably not until after Trump is out of office?
What is the point of impeaching someone who only has two years left? By the time they actually make it happen it's probably one year left. And then removal takes a little longer...so what would it achieve?
if it's about sending a message, wasn't Trump already impeached once (or twice)?
I mean, progressives are almost entirely performative in their political character, so....
i have no doubt that our elected officials will primarily concern themselves with such performances.
It will be 2 years of pump. Gridlock is good for the markets.
They will be busy subpoenaing and impeaching and Trump’s crew protecting their own asses so they will not have time to mess around at the Hormuz or with tariffs etc.
Oil and related will continue to rise until someone deals with supply side easing.
Crypto will get more regulated or new free market moves will get stymied at least in terms of nothing new, so more of the same as-is since no one will agree on it unless co-opted by lobbyists.
Lobbying firms will make a killing helping compromise actions as that will be the only thing that passes Congress.
Tech will slow down now having lost their AI support and runaway position steamrolling communities.
Surveillance firms will suddenly run for the hills but the professionals like Palantir will make inroads to the Dem side to keep business moving.
Services will see a boom as the Dems push for more government spending to restore programs lost in cuts.
Elon Musk will become a hot potato no one wants to stand next to especially during investigations.
DOGE people will be fooked as they will be witness #1s called on to explain what they tinkered with in 2025.
Congress might bring back Inspector Generals who could have a whole slew of things to look at.
Private banking, contract service CEOs like the private prisons, and Trump family might want to start making travel plans for extended stays out of the country given all the money that was funneled to them or through them in non-bid, non-spotlight activity.
A sudden spike in whisteblowing will add more kerosene to the fire from disgruntled fed employees who survived 2025 and still have their jobs.
Lots of appointees may be exiting back to private side to get out of the fray.
Some guesses what to expect...
This could be tough for shitcoins. Their biggest booster/rugger has lost some juice.
I don’t think that’s the case.
When bitcoin pumps, the wealth effect will pump shitcoins too.
CFTC and SEC new rules are still in place, and Dems will probably reconsider the Clarity Act with some changes since more and more voters in the US own or trade crypto.
No idea what will happen... but impeachment sounds like the most logical and likely outcome.
Trump said there's be a 1929 style depression
Bannon said the dog caught the car and seems amused
We witnessed a completely fake Biden presidency to eat the shit on the covid psyopflation
For months every talking head has equated the AI build out with the financial system and economy
Data center build outs now basically going to be frozen, likely energy production too.
Next news cycle is already the debt ceiling
We know the fiat system is a ponzi and big prints are usually invoked through a crisis
So my baseline is financial crisis then wild inflation, dog that caught the car gets dragged and owns it
China/Russian activity in 2028 compounds the crisis further, Musk/Palantir/Military AI assumes continuity of government operations and becomes self-aware