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Dems could very well end up with 56 senate seats if they flip AK and MS. That would mean they need 11 votes from the other side to convict and remove the turd. Last impeachment they got 7 Republican votes. They would only need 4 more. I think it is a very real chance they could remove him.
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I think there's a real chance too. I just don't know how big.
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I'm staying on the No side as well, but the insider seems to think it's a coin-flip.
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Impeachment doesn't necessarily mean removal though, which is why I'm hesitant to take a position in the market.
I am endowed with some NOs in that market already, thanks to my past arbitraging of the two markets "Does Trump make it to July 2026" vs "Does Trump finish his 2nd term"