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Inflation expectations!
Ok, cool... But a gridlock/split government won't allow additional spending. What makes you think the banks or Warsh be printing...? And worse: why would a blue wave change that expectation?
Your logic is why I haven't taken extra positions on inflation expectations. But Gold is up big too, so I really do think inflation expectations increased last night.
Not that 8 basis points is a big move but... Eeeh, no?
https://www.macrotrends.net/3019/5-year-breakeven-inflation-rate
Also: the 10y yield slightly up; 30y yield slightly down.
Hmm... I'm not great at interpreting bond yield movements.
Let's see, if people expect inflation to go up, demand for long bonds should go down. Which should push the yields up. The increase in the 10y yield is consistent with that. Not sure how to interpret the 30 year yield.
Same... my point tho is that there's obvs not a clear inflation expectation move. (Maybe will be, but they you can always argue some other cause.)
And if anything, moves are microscopic. Markets be like, BOOORRRRING!
And bond market is definitely the boringest of them all.
maybe the jump is just a return to the trend? Maybe leading up to the election people sold on the expectation that there would be a dump. Then, post election they bought because they wanted to get back into their positions? (I'm no financial guy though, so who knows)
I was a tad surprised seeing a bitcoin exchange rate jump today. What am I missing??