There was a market for Jesus returning and I cashed in on it, because I was right. 

The real mechanism, I suspect, will just be that some people like teaching more than trading/gambling.

Funny you should bring that up, because besides trader, another career turn I've explored is theologian

> I hate how so much of what is supposed to be a "knowledge-producing job" is really about producing "knowledge which is palatable to the consensus" rather than producing true knowledge.
> 
> The only marketplace where being right matters more than being palatable is making calls on what you think will or won't happen.

Not disagreeing with you, obviously, but surely there is knowledge/wisdom worth having (and thus being taught) that either isn't tradeable in even a perfectly credible prediction market with well-formulated resolution criteria _or_ doesn't have a suitable resolution criterion (over human lifespans, say Jesus returning; theology; meaning of life).

denlillaapan

Couple of reasons...

Sometimes the raw prediction matters less than the "why" of it... and commentators could supply some of that "why"

But bigger reason is ultimately I don't trust prediction markets as much as you guys.  With or without insider trading, I don't anticipate there being enough liquidity to have reliable real time signals

Those who can’t do…

I get it. The commentariat are there for narrative construction and maintenance. 

In a world where everyone is dabbling in prediction markets though, won’t it be more natural to wonder why you should listen to some random jabroni who doesn’t even put his money where his mouth is?

Undisciplined

I’ve been wondering about how much prediction markets will crowd out the entire expert commentariat class.

Why should I jump through all the stupid hoops that editors and reviewers put between my work and a hypothetical audience (academic audiences are almost entirely hypothetical), when I can just take my results straight to a market test of their validity?

This also raises the question of why I should teach anyone else the things that I’ve learned through my own research. If they’re worth teaching, I should act on it in secret. If they’re not, then nobody should pay to learn from me.

I don't think prediction markets will crowd out the expert class (and I think you guys are sweet libertarian summer children for thinking so), but I've long been thinking about just becoming a trader.

I hate how so much of what is supposed to be a "knowledge-producing job" is really about producing "knowledge which is palatable to the consensus" rather than producing true knowledge.

The only marketplace where being right matters more than being palatable is making calls on what you think will or won't happen.

the_stacker_muse

BooksAndArticles

econ

The Social Value of Prediction Markets (TDE, Joakim Book)

> I’ve been wondering about how much prediction markets will crowd out the entire expert commentariat class.
> 
> Why should I jump through all the stupid hoops that editors and reviewers put between my work and a hypothetical audience (academic audiences are almost entirely hypothetical), when I can just take my results straight to a market test of their validity?
> 
> This also raises the question of why I should teach anyone else the things that I’ve learned through my own research. If they’re worth teaching, I should act on it in secret. If they’re not, then nobody should pay to learn from me.

I don't think prediction markets will crowd out the expert class (and I think you guys are sweet libertarian summer children for thinking so), but I've long been thinking about just becoming a trader.

I hate how so much of what is supposed to be a "knowledge-producing job" is really about producing "knowledge which is palatable to the consensus" rather than producing true knowledge.

The only marketplace where being right matters more than being palatable is making calls on what you think will or won't happen.