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Who am I to disagree with the likes of Yang and Hayes?
Honestly? You're Scoresby and you, like everyone else, can disagree with anyone you like. I'm personally not particularly sensitive to Hayes (though I do appreciate his savagery and he does get things right from time to time) or Yang (though I do sympathize with the feeling of impending doom, a little, but I see much bigger problems than LLMs)
I don't expect that everyone is going to emerge a vibe coder like a butterfly from their pre-AI cocoon
I think it would be great if anyone could emerge a vibe coder, but that's what I tried to elude to: I don't think that that's true. Most importantly, the barrier to entry is real. Maybe not for you or I, but for anyone not privileged, it's hard. But even without that, it's a skill to know what to ask. This is easy for someone that spent a career in architecting huge systems for huge corps and govs, but most people that are born before 2010 don't even know what to want, let alone what to ask.
Maybe the current gen of youth (whatever that's called) will be much more enabled in this, because of them growing up with the tech widely available while still curious. But I am not at all sure about that: we see the capture happening in front of our eyes (see your reply below). Who is taking that on? The geopolitical imperialism everyone around me is pretty upset about right now isn't nearly as bad as the digital kind done by the corpos, yet.
I expect AI will get turned into at least one major new art form
I've always said coding is an art form. I think coding is dying at the moment, but not because the bots are so good. Simply everyone expects it to die, so I guess it will die.
I read this thing from Eric S Raymond today, and maybe it speaks to what you are saying. He has spent a career architecting. But his point is interesting. Here's the bitter link:
https://nitter.net/esrtweet/status/2023978360351682848#m
The geopolitical imperialism everyone around me is pretty upset about right now isn't nearly as bad as the digital kind done by the corpos, yet.
This part is spot on. I don't know hardly anyone outside of my Bitcoin bubble who cares.
You sound more down on coding than many writers are on writing. I can't speak to coding, but as far as writing goes I'm pretty optimistic. For me writing has always been about making weird connections to show to readers and that part at least is getting better.
I like Andrew Yang but not his views on public policy
Hayes has interesting takes, some wrong, some have a kernel of truth maybe
You make a good point about emotional dependency. I wasn't considering that, much.
This evening, I've been reading Arthur Hayes'latest and it is a little surprising how in step with Yang he is:
Who am I to disagree with the likes of Yang and Hayes? But it seems to me that markets get very weird around things that everybody expects to happen. Right now, everybody expects massive white collar job loss courtesy of the Terminator (wouldn't it be just poetic if that bureaucratic term cum sci-fi horror actually returns to its hr roots?).
I don't expect that everyone is going to emerge a vibe coder like a butterfly from their pre-AI cocoon, but I really don't see how this thing that is going to obliterate all the things that people are doing will yet remain out of reach for those very same people.
I am pretty confident that hiring good people is still a good idea. Some of them will have ideas that reveal how small a closet we've been standing in all this time.
eg. Film, tv and movies are something like half a percent of GDP. This is a thing that didn't exist much more than 100 years ago, and which we could all probably be just fine. Yet there it is. I expect AI will get turned into at least one major new art form of such scale.