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Thanks, and yes I fully agree with that. I don't believe that we need UBI or any of that bs.
I even know why the guys I'm having an interview with wanna hire me (of course they do, lol). I just don't understand why now, as opposed to in 6-12 months; everyone is consolidating, so why are they not? For a moment I thought this was one of them rubber hose honeypots where they gonna beat me to death over sats I already spent anyway lol.
I do worry about this being more of a consolidation event than an enabling event, looking at how it's going, and with all the political capture, I'm seeing the enthusiasm of 9-18 months ago dry up, and instead a lot of the same fomo on the one side and doomer bs on the other repeated over and over again. There aren't many people on the middle ground in AI, and I suspect that that's what's preventing a good balance - polarization doesn't really bring that.
Nasdaq and SP500 will go to 0
The world is ending, chosen people will return to the holy land, second coming of Christ
I forgot to mention trigger alert
You make a good point about emotional dependency. I wasn't considering that, much.
This evening, I've been reading Arthur Hayes'latest and it is a little surprising how in step with Yang he is:
Profit maximizing corporation will quickly fire a sizable chunk of its knowledge workers if the AI tools are 10 or 100 times faster than a qualified human....The market will assume unemployed workers cannot meet their monthly payments on consumer credit and mortgages. Then the banks that survive will severely restrict the amount of consumer and mortgage lending because they do not know how the previously wealthiest workers will earn a living in the age of AI. Without the flow of credit, demand for real goods collapses. This is how a banking crisis completely grinds Pax Americana’s economy to a halt.
This will be a rerun of the regional bank crisis in early 2023 that destroyed three banks in a fortnight. But this time it will be much worse, as the genesis of the crisis is the unstoppable nature of AI, a narrative the market believes and is terrified by. Sell and withdraw first; investigate later. This is how investors and depositors will approach this situation as soon as everyone knows that everyone knows that all white-collar workers will lose out to AI tools and thus cannot pay their bills.
Once AI takes your accountancy, legal, investment banking, etc. jobs, they ain’t coming back. Maybe after a few years of retraining, you can get another job in whatever newfangled employment sector emerges because of AI, but that will take many years if it happens at all. You cannot service your debts in the meantime, and the market will price that collateralized auto loan debt obligation as zero.
Everyone knows that everyone knows that AI is the most transformative general-purpose technology in human history. The consensus also believes that once AI comes for the arrogant college educated paper pushing lawyer, Lord Elon or more likely his Chinese competitors, will launch AI-powered robots that reduce the price of labor to near zero. Faced with these “truths”, the Fed must print bigger than it’s ever printed before. And the best part is that the politicians are so afraid of AI-sponsored credit deflation, they will gladly support another round of QE infinity.
Who am I to disagree with the likes of Yang and Hayes? But it seems to me that markets get very weird around things that everybody expects to happen. Right now, everybody expects massive white collar job loss courtesy of the Terminator (wouldn't it be just poetic if that bureaucratic term cum sci-fi horror actually returns to its hr roots?).
I don't expect that everyone is going to emerge a vibe coder like a butterfly from their pre-AI cocoon, but I really don't see how this thing that is going to obliterate all the things that people are doing will yet remain out of reach for those very same people.
I am pretty confident that hiring good people is still a good idea. Some of them will have ideas that reveal how small a closet we've been standing in all this time.
eg. Film, tv and movies are something like half a percent of GDP. This is a thing that didn't exist much more than 100 years ago, and which we could all probably be just fine. Yet there it is. I expect AI will get turned into at least one major new art form of such scale.
Who am I to disagree with the likes of Yang and Hayes?
Honestly? You're Scoresby and you, like everyone else, can disagree with anyone you like. I'm personally not particularly sensitive to Hayes (though I do appreciate his savagery and he does get things right from time to time) or Yang (though I do sympathize with the feeling of impending doom, a little, but I see much bigger problems than LLMs)
I don't expect that everyone is going to emerge a vibe coder like a butterfly from their pre-AI cocoon
I think it would be great if anyone could emerge a vibe coder, but that's what I tried to elude to: I don't think that that's true. Most importantly, the barrier to entry is real. Maybe not for you or I, but for anyone not privileged, it's hard. But even without that, it's a skill to know what to ask. This is easy for someone that spent a career in architecting huge systems for huge corps and govs, but most people that are born before 2010 don't even know what to want, let alone what to ask.
Maybe the current gen of youth (whatever that's called) will be much more enabled in this, because of them growing up with the tech widely available while still curious. But I am not at all sure about that: we see the capture happening in front of our eyes (see your reply below). Who is taking that on? The geopolitical imperialism everyone around me is pretty upset about right now isn't nearly as bad as the digital kind done by the corpos, yet.
I expect AI will get turned into at least one major new art form
I've always said coding is an art form. I think coding is dying at the moment, but not because the bots are so good. Simply everyone expects it to die, so I guess it will die.
I read this thing from Eric S Raymond today, and maybe it speaks to what you are saying. He has spent a career architecting. But his point is interesting. Here's the bitter link:
https://nitter.net/esrtweet/status/2023978360351682848#m
The geopolitical imperialism everyone around me is pretty upset about right now isn't nearly as bad as the digital kind done by the corpos, yet.
This part is spot on. I don't know hardly anyone outside of my Bitcoin bubble who cares.
You sound more down on coding than many writers are on writing. I can't speak to coding, but as far as writing goes I'm pretty optimistic. For me writing has always been about making weird connections to show to readers and that part at least is getting better.
I like Andrew Yang but not his views on public policy
Hayes has interesting takes, some wrong, some have a kernel of truth maybe
I intend to ask the hiring party, as in seriously, what on earth is moving them to hire right now. I didn't think I'd ever need to wonder about that, but I honestly do.
do report back.
I'm going to react to a single thing that I think is important to think more about.
Idk about this one, but I levitate towards the doomers a bit.
Because honestly, it is easy to reason about this from a privileged position. If you are of sound mind, it's easier to not fall into a trap of emotional dependency on a sycophantic bot. But if you're vulnerable, what then?
And, unless you have a pretty good idea what you're doing with your coding buddy, you may, as @k00b put it, be telling your bot to boil the ocean. Can everyone afford a 1M sats OpenAI bill because you instructed an oopsie in that agentic setup some 40yo former cofounding fuckboi from the Valley said was the only way or you go bust? I don't think so.
The fomo is messed up. The pressure immense. I have an interview soon and I intend to ask the hiring party, as in seriously, what on earth is moving them to hire right now. I didn't think I'd ever need to wonder about that, but I honestly do.