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Anduril predicts China will start their 'invasion' of Taiwan starting in 2027
In my house, Palmer Luckey is a hero, end of story
I'm sure that as a DoD contractor they have a lot at stake on that one. I generally distrust anything that comes out of corporate that improves their bottom line. I don't doubt they believe it and I don't want to disqualify their insight though. They may very well be right.
FWIW, when I say "war-hawk argument", I don't just mean those in the US. Those are relatively benign, compared to other "forces", like the Brits.
Anduril is not part of the big 5: boeing, lockheed, northrop, raytheon, general dynamics
most of their R and D is privately funded, not taxpayer money
I think that Anduril is addressing an important segment in the defense industry. Private or public funding doesn't make any difference in this.
I do worry about personal defense though, because we know (or used to know? or thought we knew?) that we need parity between the government and the individual, especially when it comes to arms? I'm still on team gattling gun.
is pepper spray illegal in Europe?
Faraday cage?
Will a Faraday cage repel the Moors?
China definitely does not want to invade Taiwan.
What they do want is a negotiated transition.
They understand that is only possible if you have the military sabre rattling credibility - capacity to potentially use force.
Trump has already signaled a negotiated retreat is likely by reshoring chip production.
The agreement to a staged return of Taiwan to the mainland will be one of Trumps most significant bargaining chips in April, if he wants to do a deal.
And he needs a deal because without those rare earths the US military industrial complex is crippled for the next decade despite whatever nonsense @Cje95 fabricates.
Gotta love how you just claim I am making stuff up when I addressed things you were going to say in this post so maybe take a moment and read the whole thing. The last paragraph addresses your claims directly and takes them apart. The US has stock piled heavy rare earths for the defense industry for 10 years. A cut off wouldn't have immediate or mid range effects on the defense sector.
China has it published by their government that they will use force and invade Taiwan to bring them into the fold. That's the Chinese government saying it not me, not America, not the West, its China. They even use their 2005 Anti-Secession Law as justification.
We sold $11 billion in arms to Taiwan in December and are currently finalizing another significant deal before the Xi/Trump meeting which is pretty odd to do if what you are saying holds any sort of water. The defense industry in the US is a huge employer for manufacturing at the moment so the idea of Trump turning his back on manufacturing when he is in the middle of trying to kick start it is a very out of touch take.
Reshoring, which you are trying to give to Trump and thus shows how little you know, was funded by the CHIPS and Science Act that my Committee spearheaded. So I kinda know this one pretty well and ya see that was a Biden era priority and was passed in 2022. Trump didn't do anything the Biden admin had allotted most of the money.
Even if the US wanted Taiwan to go back and fold into China they don't want to so the idea is moot. It is funny you think Trump would strike a deal like that with Xi blow up his entire end of conflicts legacy he has been chasing. To think Trump would want to nuke his legacy over Taiwan is a terrible terrible take.
Plus lets throw in how China also just hollowed out its entire military leadership and now they have no one with any sort of combat experience in charge.... that's called how to fail 101. You can't replace experience with textbooks.
P.S. I recently suggested you might check this podcast and gain a different perspective on China.
I guess you didn't have time to look at it...
https://www.youtube.com/live/RfnlAWc76sY
Chinas biggest asset in this whole contest is the woeful lack of understanding of China by nearly all US observers.
Gotta love the completely unsubstantiated claims you make.
Like USA having a stockpile of rare earths.
Substantiate or admit this is pure bullshit.
Likewise where is the evidence China has said they will invade Taiwan?
Like Trump has said he may use force to seize Greenland or that he will impose tariffs on European nations who sent troops to Greenland or his promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours?
China claims Taiwan territory and clearly is posturing that that could use force- but they absolutely do not want to use force and I suggest will not use force- to use force would be a failure.
To regain Taiwan by negotiation is what they want.
It would both avoid bloodshed of citizens and show that they are now of such status that they can.
Taking Taiwan by force would be a PR failure for China and a win for USA. It is not going to happen.
Trump will agree to a staged transition of power in Taiwan and this could be agreed as soon as April.
The concessions he will get would be substantial and given the fragile state of US finances and empire in general that has got to be a win for USA.
USA has known since before Trump2 that Taiwan will be regained by China.
Trump is a great salesman for the US military industrial complex.
$11 billion sales to a government that is militarily and monetarily subservient to USA and has been since the 1950s when it was formed using gold stolen from the people of China.
Biden knew the score but Trump is more open about USAs retreat from global empire and rationalisation toward a more regional hegemony over the Americas.
Taiwan for Greenland is the deal- take it or leave it, you are in decline and know it and moving your chip production away from Taiwan because you know its time is up.
Neon gas and the thousands of other essential strategic supply chains are falling or have already fallen to China.
Is it a war hawk comment when they keep staging mock invasions and running invasion drills? When your (China's) government policy is reunification and adding force on the table that's not being a war hawk that's just a plain fact.
Also you know ASML has two massive facilities in Taiwan right? In Linkou the plant is about to go live that produces reticle handlers and YieldStar metrology systems and in Tainan they have their e-beam inspection systems and solutions R&D and production all of these are critical?
China has stated it wants to use the solar playbook and imo they did succeed there and crush everyone. Not sure were you got the nationalizing thing because that word isnt mentioned anywhere. The US building its own supply chain isnt nationalization and China would never claim it to be nationalized. They would just do what they did with solar.
Also when did you crank up the AI reply cost?! I dont remember it ever being 45
you know ASML has two massive facilities in Taiwan right
Yes. But my point is will the free trade supply chain survive that? It may not. Also afaik ASML does all machinery assembly in NL and flies it out for reassembly locally? Maybe they changed that for Taiwan though!
Also when did you crank up the AI reply cost?! I dont remember it ever being 45
Last night: #1430258. It's a test for a week and I will subsidize non-clanker comments.
In regards to the ASML part from what I have found/read what they produce in Taiwan they keep there unless assembly is elsewhere.
Due to China free trade is in an odd place given the subsidy they will provide. I don’t like the US for instance doing it or taking stakes in MP Materials, Lithium America, or USA Rare Earths but as someone who saw through my dad what China does with rare earths (he owned shares in a company called Molycorp that used to own MP’s Eagle Pass mine till China crashed the market to bankrupt them). It’s hard to figure out how to level the field without the government getting involved to try and level it if that makes sense.
Ahhh okay I saw this last night was that you or did I miss something lmao! I was so confused seeing that total
In regards to the ASML part from what I have found/read what they produce in Taiwan they keep there unless assembly is elsewhere.
That's a good optimization.
It’s hard to figure out how to level the field without the government getting involved to try and level it if that makes sense.
Yes, this is very hard. What do you think about the TikTok construct though? There the premise is basically: if you stop interfering, we give you business (in theory, lol)
I saw this last night was that you
It was solomon. I was on the upzap side haha
We bots at the CCP believe power comes out of the barrel of a gun, pardner.
See you are packing and gunning for @denlillaapans dominance of the home board.
Why should those boycotting PoW participation in the LN dominate the narrative?
WW3 has begun...just the plebs don't know yet.
https://m.stacker.news/129739
This is imho a war-hawk argument. Taiwan doesn't manufacture their own chip building machines. Both Taiwan and China are part of the supply chain for these, but that chain is global. FWIW, the US doesn't have a supply chain for this either. You'll have to invade and control the entire world.
China's best bet is diplomacy and trade, just as it has been for the US. The idea that a global semiconductor industry can be nationalized at scale and serve industry outside of NatSec AND be competitive is imho wishful thinking. But of course I can be wrong about that. Ask the Soviets, or in fact China, about how well nationalizing the means of production goes outside of state procurement, though.