Beat Mr. 0x to the party today... (heee-heee, #1424697)
lots of clever voices have been thinking about this and Fed independence since Trump began badgering the Fed board and then nominate a loyalist to lead it. Is central bank independence dying?! was it always a sham?
Donald Trump wants lower interest rates. He has said so openly and has pressured the Federal Reserve accordingly. The political logic seems obvious: easier money boosts asset prices, juices consumer spending, and appears to support headline growth. With midterms approaching, that sugar high is tempting.
"But it’s also a mistake — economically, politically, and strategically.""But it’s also a mistake — economically, politically, and strategically."
Inflation is still a major concern. After peaking above 9 percent in 2022, it has come down meaningfully. But core inflation remains sticky, especially in services and housing. Shelter costs are still rising around 3 percent annually. Since shelter comprises a large share of price indices, it is a major contributor to average price growth exceeding the Fed’s two percent target. Insurance, medical services, childcare, and rents continue to climb faster than incomes. The last thing this economy needs is a renewed inflationary surge driven by easier monetary conditions.
probs a bad political gambit too:
Voters are not angry about GDP growth rates or S&P multiples. They are angry about grocery prices, rent, childcare costs, and insurance premiums. Affordability is the dominant economic issue in polling. A policy that visibly worsens price stability in exchange for a few quarters of rosy headlines will look reckless to a public that already feels economically insecure.
"Fed Independence" is a joke. Its a gag. A talking point hoisted on the populace to put a veneer of respectability on the enterprise.
How can the central bank of a govt, whose primary role it is to finance said govt, be "independent"?
The two sides implicitly depend on each other. The only real assets the Fed has (traditionally) are govt bonds - which are denominated to pay in the same currency that Fed issues its new money in...hahaha. This is the same currency that the US Treasury authorizes the Fed to create....what a system!
This fake veneer of independence could never last because ultimate its a "Fed Not Needed" situation. The US Treasury could do all these jobs without paying interest to the Fed for the privilege.
Fed independence is very real, by design. Independence from who is the question few consider.
The Fed (and its foreign counterparts) are independent from the sovereign state, as it is a lever of control imposed by the imperalist-globalist to undermine the sovereignty of those states. To ensure they remain colonies dependent on the empire.
Restoring the Hamiltonian system, where the Treasury obviates the Fed, is restoring independence... from the globalists.
I think people have a hard time seeing Fed independence because so often the same cartel that runs the Fed runs the current regime in the US. While ideologically I am opposed to the state being involved in coining money at all the reality is that you are correct. Dr. Bob Murphy has explained how elimination of the Fed and going back to the Treasury would be an improvement. Just as moving back to a tariff funded federal government in place of income tax would be better.
The reality is that the vast majority of people actually think the US government controls the Fed. Or that the president does. Clearly Trump has exposed that as a lie. He's trying to take control. At best, he can influence it.
The problem with these moves for me is that I have a hard time thinking tariffs will replace income tax and that the government will do much better than the banking cartel. But, maybe that is just a stop on the road to sound money on bitcoin.
Often is the key word. In my other posts cites other admins that have fought this same battle. Hamilton, Lincoln, McKinley, JFK, Nixon... possibly Reagan to a lesser degree.
The Great Awakening
Patriots in control. Trump hasn't gotten this far without a loyal faction inside the apparatus.
and counter-moves
Fog of war is too often confused with incompetence.
Income tax revenue isn't really that meaningful, and important to remember it's a tax on growth... it's growth solves deficit and revenue issues. I see no way they don't get rid of it. That doesn't mean tariffs will make up all the revenue, there may still be seigniorage, but seigniorage in a growing economy is different than seigniorage in a stifled one.
Bitcoin is really important here, it's a transparent ledger for a reason, not for the government to spy on the little guy but for the little guy with a large anonset, but for all to spy on the state-scale enemies that can't move large amounts of money without it being seen on chain.
That's the correct framing, globalists/communists have sidelines so many anti-communists with libertarian fantasy in letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. The only thing more important than gaining ground is not losing it.
Remember, Bitcoin isn't some anon randomness, it was created by the same natsec apparatus that installed Trump and is counter-striking the globalists, as a tool in this war.
Yes. I often speak of the perfect because I'm a firm believer in education for those that want to learn. But personally I'm a very big pragmatist. There is the ideal, and there is reality. Its why I won't jump onboard with the TDS some people seem obsessed with. These people seem to think that the pre-Trump world was just great. They are clueless about the effects on at least 1/3 of the US. That the political class not only ignored these people but really despise them. But the problem is many orange man enjoyers are naive statist.
I have no faith in Democracy, Globalism, or the state. That said, we are generations away from having the human knowledge of the issues and critical mass required to have what most libertarians and anarcho-capitalists propose.
Bottom line, I know that the globalist, centrists, liberals, and progressives will not stand up to the state when it wants to line up people like us up against a wall. Our chances are far better with the right. What matters for me most is personal relationships and most of the people I know well and trust are not on the left. While they don't see things like I do, they are much closer to my world view.
Yea the NAP doesn't mean lying down and dying like many fake libertarians would like
What does not lying down look like to you though?
Just as you shouldn't bring a knife to a gun fight, you can't bring conscientious objection to the fight when the communists are actively using the state to kill you. You must become the state as a matter of self-defense. We can't just wish the state away, the state is and will always be...
but...
#1421694
I'm skeptical of Trump. Very skeptical. But most of the critiques of him coming from most people are way off. And I mean my circle and normies. Not SN or bitoiners.
I don't think most people realize that the world was changing before Trump entered the chat. Trump is not the change agent but rather rose due largely due to the discontent with the status quo. The post WW2 consensus around globalization and democracy is crumbling before our eyes. Nationalism isn't Nazism. We have failed to learn the lessons of the past. People are tribal and what we are seeing now is people that have group identity just fed up with being lied to and ignored by those that claim to represent them.
The whole globalist ideological international relations world order was an illusion. It was always about power. Real power is returning. National identity is making a comeback. The illusion could not state forever. The image of evil (Hitler) has run out of power as people age out. The weaponization of the liberal world order is getting weaker and weaker.
I have my ideals but I also have eyes. I can see what is happening. Trump has been riding this wave. I have no illusions that he's likely a very evil man. I just don't have the illusion that he is uniquely evil. Also, it would not matter if he was. This system so many people believe in so dearly allowed him to take power and the same democratic system pushed him into this position.
I can't cry with all of the TDS people. People like us have been warning about this for decades and no one listened. Dr. Paul warned them. They mocked him. So... this is what you get. You don't care about state rights when the globalists are in power? ICE in your state now. You aren't anti-war when Obama has the reins of power? Trump is gonna use that power too. You made this bed. You get to sleep in it with all of us.
Maybe if the world order which has resulted in a man like Trump taking power (through the system) proves how broken this precious system actually is. Many moderates are good decent people. They are just under the spell. Its just annoying to hear them cry about all this stuff after years of mocking my warnings.
What are you gonna do? Gripe on SN I guess.
I don't think people realize how far back these battles go period. These are the same undercurrents of the revolution, 1812, ww1, ww2... and everything since. The names and faces change, but it's still the same polarities.
It just comes to a head at certain points. Warsh used the term regime change, Chatham house called it a revolution.
There's zero basis in that, that's just your bias towards government in general. Like anti-gun people thinking every gun owner is evil.
He was already rich, famous, and old. Evil people use puppets and stay out of the light... and the media drama is because he's not a puppet in a stuffed suit, some nobody bureaucrat.
That's the gun in the room, whether you like it or not someone will pick it up. It's either us, or the Bolsheviks. The worst people are the moderates, the Kerensky's, its that abdication that lets the Bolsheviks take power.
I don't really understand the TDS situation that much. Its somehow beyond just normal Red/Blue team dynamics.
It really reminds me of the Covid situation, how suddenly at the flip of a switch normal people started suddenly calling for vaccine checkpoints and publicly hoping all anti-vaxxers would die (because they didn't want to take an untested vaccine for the flu).
There is some type of voodoo mind-control thing going on.
To be clear, I'm not talking about someone who says: "I don't like Trump". I'm talking about the flip-switch people who attribute every possible evil to Trump. They simultaneously paint him as being diabolically subversive and a complete moron. Each of his actions will cause them to vacillate between those explanations multiple times in a single conversation. Everyone hates him and he's going to lose everything and also a whole nation of brown-shirt gestapo is going to blindly follow him and will put them all in camps.
Its really unhinged.
Psychological Operations of military grade. That's in large part why all this has to be scripted.
The history of psychological warfare and intelligence agencies is a required rabbit hole to understanding how the world actually works. Nothing is organic.
Already did.
In fact, most money was printed under Republicans.
Biden became president in 2021. Most m2 money was printed under Trump in 2020.
um, awkward... the federal gov doesn't control m2, bro
Can anyone name more than a handfull of Republicans that have spoken about sound money and against the FED?
The only one that I have heard talk about the FED from a sound money perspective from a Presidential campaign platform is Ron Paul. Maybe Rand Paul but never heard him talk about it.
I’d say Trump has already locked in a complex legacy.
The same globalist econ larps that have always been wrong will continue to be wrong, why I'm glad Bessent calls himself an economic historian and not an economist.
Before the fed and through national bank era, 3% interest rates were the norm, with spikes only during crisis and around crop harvest due to farmers needing credit.
Lower rates do not create supply, they lower interest expense. When the government is in deficit, its the interest expense that is quantitatively added to circulation, breaking gold peg etc. Deficit spending is what causes inflation, its another form of fiscal stimulus or QE. The same fiscal stimulus Bessent said is over, the same fiscal stimulus (QE) Warsh is well known to be against.
Growth is the natural deflationary pressure, so raising rates is a tool the globalists use to hamper industrial production once growth gets going, making those higher rates even more inflationary as productivity is constrained. No coincidence these econ thinkboi pieces are always de-industrialist rags.
Lyn Adlen may be the only talking head I've seen that somewhat understands this, ironically with a touch of T&EDS herself
What has been fiscal stimmies for all of our lives and certainly the life of Bitcoin is effectively over, with elasticity being handed over to the banks in the form of new SLR rules that tether supply creation to growth (therefore, not inflationary).
Globalism is a good thing
Free trade and free markets naturally do not know any borders. Any government intervention to stop global free trade is communist.
You're a filthy communist if you are against globalism.
Bitcoin is also global. It knows no borders, no goverment intervention and is impervious to communist interventions
Realist. You're the communist because you don't know history.
There's no such thing as free trade, borders are every bit as real as the walls of your parents basement.
The free trade nonsense is a misquote of Adam Smith, who was very anti what you would call free trade. He favored tariffs and retaliation as he recognized this, even supporting the Navigation Acts.
lmfao. That's the most cope & seethe thing I have ever heard. Does the cognitive dissonance hurt little guy.
You're a communist. Your political opinions are incompatible with capitalism, liberterianism and Bitcoin. And that's okay: humans don't have to be consistent. What's not okay is that you're lying to yourself
It's fact not opinion. Adam Smith was pro tariff and the navigation act, sorry to jam your virtue signal.