Even though there was some AI-related vol in U.S. equity markets last week (#1611978), the U.S. economy is doing great. (Don't believe the haters, huh! #1599758, #1608876)
Markets steadied.
After Thursday’s near-catastrophic sell-off, led by AI stocks, Friday’s jobs report came in unexpectedly strong, both in terms of jobs added and a 4.1 per cent unemployment rate. [...] How a broadly sturdy US economy has been a key counterbalance to a US stock market that has been wobbly since the spring.
Cool lil liftoff graph
"consider the long-term trend in real wage growth"
YES; that shit is exxactly my point in that anti-progress piece. #1608876
oh but there's sturdy econ growth and look at all these wonderful new AI gadgets? Life is great.
https://x.com/joakimbook/status/2120156273354395832
Real wages are growing, but barely, and not for long if the current trend persists. Combine this with price levels that are a third or so higher than before the pandemic and the restive electorate is easy to understand.
LADY has a point.
also, interview with Mark Blyth, int/public affairs prof at Brown. Some nice extracts:
The AI bubble unravelling is killing us all, ouch. Dude is, uh, optimistic?
I call it the barbell from hell. It’s perfectly balanced. On the one hand, you have a technology that can create Great Depression levels of unemployment, where people already have zero faith in institutions. On the other side of the barbell, you have a financial crisis that generates second-hand quasi-Great Depression levels of unemployment.
---
archive: https://archive.md/ukwh2
well that sounds fun.
I'm surprised real wage growth is positive at all. If inflation is running at 4%, wouldn't a 1% real wage growth imply 5% nominal wage growth?
Yep. Keep in mind that it can only track people who continue to have jobs. The others are not counted as -100%.
I found this chart from Wolf Richter interesting:
The narration:
It looks different when you combine labor and tools. Basically, you have to be thought of now as you plus the tools needed for your craft.
I also wonder if that includes expenses towards compliance with labor regulations.
Only if I can bring my own tools. If not, then please do not conflate the value of my sovereign self with that overpriced inferior database software Altman sold ya.
If you’re bringing your own tools make sure you’re compensated for it
yes. I'm not sure about the underlying stats (haven't looked into this topic in detail). Is that 5-10% in recent years in doubt? The boomers automatically got quite a lot in recent years + the extreme AI/engineer salaries pulling up the mean
also, yes. Me too. I first misread the chart for dipping into negative terrotiry (real) but appearently not.
Declining real wage growth is still real wage growth…unless of course it isn’t actually real wage growth.
wonderfully poetic, sir.
Den subconsciously: I wonder what it means... -.-
If you could hear my inflection it would make sense
we need audio emojis on SN
https://twiiit.com/joakimbook/status/2120156273354395832 [1]
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