Hayes has not changed the moral of his story, despite being wrong for at least a year:
It will be glorious for Bitcoin and crypto hodlers. But be patient.
Now, he sees the AI companies all falling flat post IPO and the whole big AI bubble going pop in some way that just has -- just absolutely most definitely I'm not wrong this time has to spur central banks to printing all the dollars Hayes has been hoping for these last 12 months.
None the less, he is full of his typical piss and vinegar:
Therefore, without any discussion whether the CEOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are lying or committing accounting fraud, I know the market will assume they are once the stock prices sag below the IPO price because of massive insider unlocks.
Basically, Hayes thinks the AI companies will require so much buying to soak up all the shares being sold that their share prices can't hardly do anything but go down.
Hayes may want to consider most re carefully such certain language.
the point of the IPO is to gain access to the corporate debt markets so that these companies can raise capital without hyperscaler and semiconductor company backstops. To inspire confidence in potential debt donkeys, the stock cannot just tread water but needs to pump. As I showed earlier, treading water is extremely capital intensive for the broader market. The most likely scenario is that investors aren’t as stupid as these CEOs believe, and refuse to be dumped on by insiders. Therefore, even if revenues (there ain’t going to be any earnings, lol) match expectations, the supply onslaught slowly wears on the stock price as it leaks lower.
Hayes has more confidence in investors than I do. But he thinks the whole thing stalls out and the printer gets turned back on...sometime.
In the meantime, Maelstrom is sitting this one out (or so he says).
Do you feel the analysis is wrong tho? If you highlight the inverse of what you highlight above, ignore hayes-the-degen and read hayes-the-analyst, is he wrong? A short look at the SPCX chart tells you he's not wrong about the sideways and down thing, or at least that there's a single conforming factual data point and no dissenting ones (because there aren't any but the one)
Whether it can be extrapolated like that is of course the question - if Saylor can do what he does and get away with it then so can the AI bros, meaning they'll just make up a narrative that can be argued to not be a lie, retards will buy it, and the narrator gets a lot of monies. Ez. Scam the world.
No, I don't. His argument has a lot of appeal to me, but I note that it is easier to be right (about Bitcoin going up bigly) if everyone ignores that your call has been wrong for the last year.
But as for the AI part, I think he's probably right ...unless the people are willing to be dumped on. Which more of a possibility than he is willing to admit.
Bitcoin to the moon is a logical thing to come out of the mouth of a bagholder, I don't even blame him for his hopium in that part.
I'm also with you on the "people willing to get dumped on" part. But thats the first week, maybe a month. After every fanboi sees 30% paper losses, it'll go sideways - that's also what we saw with SPCX. Then the next IPO, and the next after that. The tribal brain is sensitive to hype.
Hayes might be early, but he’s not wrong on market mechanics.
Insiders always dump at lockup expiry, supply pressure doesn't care about narratives.
Hope he's right. It feels like the AI bubble has gone on long enough.
Gimme some cheap GPUs!
Not surprised by this
I usually appreciate Mr. Hayes' sometimes obscure or out-there attacks. This one seems awfully ludicrous.
Thanks for saving me the troubles