The Dodgers are back to back champs and have a roster stacked with future hall of famers. Clearly they aren't your average playoff team. But their backs are certainly up against the wall down 0-2 in their NLCS to the Milwaukee Brewers (who had the best record in baseball this year).
MLB teams that lose the first two games on the road in a best of 7 playoff series have come back to win 19% of the time.
Let's presume if the Dodgers come back and win they will be heavy favourites in the World Series against whichever American League team makes it. The NL overall (Brewers + Dodgers) has imputed odds of around roughly 66% to win the World Series over the American League.
So if the Dodgers were a normal NL playoff team in this situation they would have a 19% chance to win the NLCS and then a 66% chance to win the World Series.
Let's do a little math and see how a non Dodgers NL playoff team's World Series winning odds would compute.
NLCS win probability 0.19
WS win probability given NLCS win 0.66
0.19 x 0.66= 0.1254
or 12.54%
A non Dodgers NL team would currently have approximately a 12.5% chance of winning the world series.
Here are the current probabilities for the Dodgers on Prediction markets and sports books:
Polymarket: 22%
Kalshi: 22.5%
Predyx: 16% (low liquidity and whale selling by me suppressing price)
FanDuel: +350 (22.2% implied)
Draftkings: +350 (22.2% implied)
So besides predyx where the price is suppressed due to my selling into low liquidity, Dodgers pretty consistently have roughly a 22% probability on prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Typical NL playoff team: 12.5% probability
Dodgers: 22% probability
Approx 75% Dodgers premium.
Fair or not???
You could also ignore the first two games and think about what their odds to win a series against the Brewers in 4 or 5 should have been. Then, multiply by the odds of beating whoever emerges out of the AL.
I think the Dodgers will be favoured in all 3 games at home and that's why they are getting a large premium. The market is betting they will at least win 2/3.
It will be interesting to see how their odds sit after games 3, 4, 5. If they still have a large premium.
Brewers are better team because they have better pitching and Shohei is hurt
It's difficult to procure an above average pitching staff with a 500 million dollar payroll in Los Angeles
If the dodgers lose, I will blame immigrants and wetbacks, then again I always blame them for everything wrong in the city
They have an all-time great starting pitching rotation, even without their best player.
who is their best player?
It's the playoffs so it must be Kike Hernandez. haha
I'm surprised ADL hasn't protested his name
I mean the Brewers best player
Let's see what Snell has tonight. He can be inconsistent especially in the playoffs.
The Dodgers aren’t dead yet; the fans are hoping for a comeback, and the sportsbooks know it—so I’m sticking with the Dodgers, against all odds.
1 in 5 the assembled avengers come back, still feels cheap 😆