Weird, pop storyline:
Saudi Arabia is considering accepting yuan for oil. BRICS is building alternative payment systems. China and Russia are settling more trade outside the dollar. Central banks are buying gold. Therefore, according to the story, the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, and when the petrodollar finally breaks, the entire global financial system will be turned upside down.
I mean, if we squint, there's a slight downward trend in the dollar share
Also, importantly: accepting a currency in trade (for whatever good or labor) is largely irrelevant... what matters is what you hold in between production and consumption, i.e., money demand.
Nearly 90% of all foreign-exchange transactions involve the dollar. Strip out every dollar currency pair and what’s left is remarkably small. Euro crosses with other currencies account for, at most, roughly 8% of global FX transactions. All remaining non-dollar, non-euro pairs combined account for only around 2%.
oops, dollar dominance ain't going nowhere...
The supposed collapse of the dollar system is being predicted while the dollar remains involved in nearly nine out of every ten currency transactions, holds a commanding lead in global reserves, and has no identifiable currency gaining enough ground to replace it.
Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves!
Before World War I, the British pound occupied roughly the position the dollar occupies today. London was the center of global finance, Britain possessed an enormous overseas commercial network, and British banks financed trade across much of the world.
cute lil map
Britain had accumulated this position over the nineteenth century as the world’s leading industrial, commercial and financial power. Even as the United States and Germany caught up with Britain industrially, London’s financial network remained extraordinarily difficult to replace.
World War I was an unmitigated disaster: the unnecessary war.
When war broke out in 1914, Europe suddenly needed enormous quantities of food, commodities, weapons and industrial goods. America could provide them. Gold flowed across the Atlantic to pay for American exports. European governments increasingly borrowed from the United States, while Britain began liquidating foreign assets to finance the war.
TL;DR:
You might not like the Iran conflict, but it certainly is not World War I. There is nothing comparable to the monetary transition of the early twentieth century happening today. The dollar remains globally dominant, and there is no rival equivalent to the United States of 1914: an isolated, secure, free-market superpower with an economy more than twice the size of the incumbent reserve issuer, AND rapidly developing the financial system necessary to challenge it.
and:
Instead, governments, institutions and individuals could gradually increase their holdings of scarce monetary assets such as gold or bitcoin while continuing to use dollars for trade, credit and financial settlement. Eventually, those assets will become important enough to play a formal role in the monetary system.
70% to 60% doesn’t seem like a small change
...in twenty-five years. (Also, that 70% starting point is already elevated, dot-com/90s stuff, and was more like 63-65% on avg)
Fine, if the real share declines by 10% (6/60), that also seems noteworthy.
Isn’t the decline in central bank treasury holdings even more stark?
My question would be what you’d expect the early stages of dedollarization to look like.
yeah true: something like this -- gradually, then suddenly.
But still, can just as well be only a lil blip.
A slow steady multi-decade decline doesn’t seem like a blip.
what, are you an alien? divine time preference/perspective? We need bitcoin standard nooooowwwwweeee #1579572
If we set our sights on more of a Galt’s Gulch situation, we might be closer than people realize.
Coordination games have very stable and stubborn equilibrium, but when they do change, it happens slowly, slowly, then suddenly all at once. Because they're so stable an beneficial to all, even slight consistent deterioration should be taken seriously because the forces pulling back to the equilibrium are so powerful.
What matter is the long term macro trends of deglobization and shifts to multipolarity, and if that persists and even accelerates, which I believe it will, the built up pressure will eventually be too much and there will eventually be a sudden shift resulting in a bretton woods 3.0 type event in which bitcoin will become the agreed upon world reserve currency because it has the optimal characteristics.
This does not require any comparable superpower to the US to replace it like what happened with Britain, history repeats but it doesn't have to play out in the exact same way.