In some circles, concern about the elections goes beyond losing the House and Senate and into strongholds where Trump is having to campaign himself, writes Katy Balls, Washington Editor of The Times.

ANALYSIS: At a private members’ club in Washington one evening last week, a Republican strategist had a warning. “It’s as bad as everyone is whispering,” the strategist was told. “We’re about to see places we never thought could turn blue won by the Democrats. Afterwards, there is going to be [a] reckoning.”

This is the new fear in Trumpworld: not just that the Republicans might lose control of the House and even the Senate come November, but that a “blue wave” is coming that will wipe out strongholds where the candidates are so comfortable they are not even used to campaigning.

So far much of the focus has been on the key battleground states, from Maine and Michigan to Texas and North Carolina, which will decide the balance of power in Washington. However, in recent weeks, some unexpected states have started to come up in conversation: Kansas, Oklahoma and Florida.

Given the last time the Democrats won in Kansas was 1932, Oklahoma was won by Donald Trump with 66% of the vote in 2024 and Florida is the Maga mecca of Mar-a-Lago, the idea that the party could have a fight on its hands in these red states is ringing serious alarm bells.

And why could it? The price of diesel in the US hit an all-time high of US$6.53 (NZ$11.54) per gallon last week. As the president rolled out the red carpet for President Xi of China, his approval rating fell. Voters are growing increasingly concerned about artificial intelligence and the economy.

“Where is the win right now?” asked one person in Trump’s orbit. “I can’t see it.” Instead the concern is that a president who rode to victory in 2024 pointing out the high cost of a dozen eggs - it had tripled compared with when Trump left office in 2021 - could be about to see his party smashed on rising prices.

Mention the “blue tsunami” to a Trump official and there is a common reply: fake news. The Republicans have surprised before, they argue, and will do so again. Chris LaCivita, a co-chair of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, has taken to calling out journalists and pollsters spouting such ideas as clickbait chasers, losers and frauds.

Chris La Civita, right, a co-chair of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, seen speaking with White House aide Natalie Harp, left, has taken to calling journalists and pollsters referring to a potential “blue tsunami” in the midterms “clickbait chasers, losers and frauds”, writes Katy Balls.Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP

But even if they are proven right and targeted campaigning, redistricting and a US$400m war chest come to the rescue, if you follow the money and the campaigns, it's clear the story playing out in the rest of the country is a stark contrast to the celebratory scenes last week in the White House.

There are three key tells. First, the messaging. In an appearance on the All-In podcast this month, JD Vance was asked what the administration’s closing message to voters would be before the midterms, just over a month away. He replied “give us another chance” before correcting himself to say “give us another couple of years” to keep doing great things.

But the implication was clear: rather than a rallying cry, Republicans are going to voters with their tails between their legs. There are conversations happening behind the scenes on how to approach voters fed up with a war that Maga promised not to start and that is pushing up prices. Members of the administration have been advising politicians to “level” with frustrated voters.

As Trump talks about a golden age, others, such as the vice-president, are saying “don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater”.

In an interview last week Vance was even asked about claims the result in November could be as bad as 2006, when George W Bush was president and backing an unpopular war, and his party lost the House and the Senate in the midterms. Vance insisted that this “worst nightmare” was not on the table as this administration has a much stronger policy record and the Democrats are further to the left than they were back then.

Petrol and diesel prices displayed at a Shell service station in Doral, Florida on September 22. Diesel prices hit an all-time in the US last week.Photo: Lynne Sladky / AP

On Fox News, this has become the new way to campaign. The host Jesse Watters, who is one of Trump’s favourite journalists and attended the state banquet hosted for the Chinese president last week, put it like this: “Listen, am I excited about Susan Collins? Am I fired up about Rogers and Ken Paxton? Probably not, but the other side - a bunch of freaks. Maybe our side isn’t getting you very aroused but their side will kill the country.”

Even Trump seems to be preparing for the worst. At the UN general assembly last week, he distanced himself from the ballot, saying: "They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realise is that I'm not running. I did that already and won in a landslide." He added that he would be around whatever happens: "I'll be here for two and a half years."

Next, the money. This week Trump will speak at rallies in Alabama and Oklahoma. The idea had been for the president to embark on a midterm tour of battleground states, but instead he’s visiting two of the most Republican states in the country. It's not just because he might appreciate a stop with a warm reception.

The Republicans have made much of their war chest, but some of these funds have started being diverted to red states. “We should have pulled Ohio funding already,” says one Republican strategist. “We now need to spend to hold safe ground.”

Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts, right, in Washington last year. More than $1m has been spent this month on advertising to help protect his position from an independent challenger in November’s midterms.Photo: Mariam Zuhaib / AP

In Kansas, Republican campaign spending has reached historic levels, with spending for the Senate race expected to surpass $50m. In the gubernatorial race, the party has spent more than $10m trying to target the Democratic nominee. Money is also pouring into the Oklahoma governor race. In the Nebraska Senate ballot, a new Republican super political action committee this month spent $1.4m on advertising to help protect their candidate, the senator Pete Ricketts, from an independent challenger.

In Iowa, a Maga talk show host and local Steve Deace posted on X last week: "Yesterday (Saturday), Iowa House Republicans were informed by their own pollsters that if you are in a +15 district [expected to win by a 15 per cent point margin], you're within the margin for error, if you're in a +10 district you're underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006."

A Republican working on election strategy said: "It might not look as bad on the surface at the congressional level because of the redistricting but ... it's going to be pretty rough when you look at real net loss."

Finally, listen to the candidates themselves. In the first year of Trump's presidency, Congress was notably supine. One time "Never Trumpers" either left the field or contorted into new positions.

But all of a sudden they seem to be finding their voices. Last week, the Republicans running for the Senate in Michigan and Iowa called on the president to end the war in Iran.

Ashley Hinson, in Iowa, whose agriculture-heavy state is particularly hurt by diesel costs, called on politicians to suspend gas taxes, adding "the [Iran] war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end". The message was echoed by Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Jesse Watters, left, and his wife Emma DiGiovine walk to the White House to attend a state dinner hosted for China's President Xi Jinping last Thursday in Washington. Watters has referred to the Democrats as “a bunch of freaks”.Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

In Florida, the Republican candidate for governor, Byron Donalds, has been accused of revamping his website to make his Trump endorsement less prominent. Floridians say one of their biggest issues will be if the Hispanic vote turns away from Trump over Immigration and Customs Enforcement checks they view as overly harsh.

Last week, Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida - who represents a district Trump won with 57 per cent of the vote - released a new advert where she spoke to Trump about immigration.

With just over a month to polling day, there is still time for things to change, or for new strategies to come in. But in Washington, the winds of change are blowing. Back in the private members' clubs, post-politics careers are being plotted and lobbyists are brushing up on their Democrat contacts.

Few Republicans expect Trump to come to their rescue. Instead, they think he will do what he wants, whether it's praising AI in the face of voter hesitation and anger over data centres, or continuing the war.

The irony is that, if Vance's nightmare scenario does come to pass, it will be because the policies they campaigned on to win in 2024 - no more wars and lower prices - have not come to pass. Instead, Republicans on the ground fear that, so far, the opposite has been delivered.

- The Sunday Times