I mean, sure we know it is dead man walking--that's why we're all here.
But what's the signal that it has officially become too late to hedge yourself and you straight effed?
What does the fiat swan song sound/look like? Has it already arrived in your part of the world?
Genuinely curious what the Stackers think.
I imagine it’s like this. Wealth increasingly becomes dependent on proximity to government. Most people are struggling but don’t know where the punches are coming from. Nothing makes sense but we keep trucking.
Chinas economy is now stronger than the USA dominating global markets in manufactured goods and commodities - that is what you struggle to comprehend.
You are in denial of reality because it does not fit your biases.
I believe though it is already too late, the dead man shuffle can go on for a long time. States are huge enterprises. The US is a particularly huge enterprise. And the dollar has such momentum that I believe it will carry on for decades (I should probably say centuries).
It's too late in the sense that debt only grows from here on out and the political dependence on money printing is irreversible, but that doesn't mean the dollar system will be abandoned anytime soon.
I am more wondering what might be a sign that hedging against this slow methodical death through buying hard assets like bitcoin becomes futile.
Maybe its too simple a framing, but I guess I'm asking how can we know when the train has left the station, so to speak? I don't think you are necessarily saying that has already happened.
Thinking more about the government than the individual, I probably misread your OP.
I don't think it is too late for individuals to hedge. I'm hoping it isnt. There's still so many people (and so much value) that is seemingly unaware of the increasing water temperature. I don't believe they will all are just shit out of luck.
When will they be and how will we know? It seems to me that it will still be quite some time. But I bet it will make overpriced pokemon cards and million dollar jpegs look reasonable.
You don't see how China now is the most productive growing economy and is challenging the USD-petrodollar hegemony?
If you do not see this I would suggest you are in denial.
It may be hard for you because you have a blind faith in the US system of crony capitalism and a dislike of Chinas political structure but the actual economic results are difficult to refute and I doubt you will even attempt to refute them.
Here is just one graph for you to consider if you can overcome your inherent US exceptionalist bias.
Wheelbarrows
The inability to sell long term debt at single digit interest rates. The interest spiral would be too fast at that point imo
Cast aside you Libertarian pipe dreams and hopium and deal with reality.
You may wish and hope things are different but can you credibly refute the following?
The Ukraine war was and remains is a challenge to the petrodollar empire post GFC when it became clear that China is now the dominant productive economy supporting the global economy.
The IMF was forced to accept China onto the exclusive board of reserve currency issuers because the Yuan and China were the major pillar preventing collapse of the petrodollar empires global institutional framework and protocols.
China is still the only member of the board that is not both a monetary and military tribute state to the USA.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY
Iran war is the USA pushing back against Chinas growing challenge to the petrodollar. With the development of mBridge and CIP enabling Yuan denominated oil trade and that trade expanding to more and more gulf states who joined mBridge protocol.
How much fiat debt issuance has USA expended upon the Iran war?
Would the US petrodollar be able to even launch the Iran war if it operated on the Bitcoin Standard and was already $40 T in the red? No.
Iran war is last hurrah as the petrodollar empire is flogged like a dead horse by its Zionist puppet masters as they launch their Greater Israel land grab to build a regional hegemony resistant to Chinas emerging dominance.
Bitcoin fine as a refuge - a virtual tax haven and SoV hedge against the insolvency and collapse of the petrodollar...but it does not and cannot enable you to debase all citizens savings in a war and that is a fatal strategic disadvantage for any nation state where control of territory and trade routes is fundamental to both credibility and ultimately, survival.
Suez-Hormuz-End of Empire.