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I agree its a restructuring and not a downturn. Two days before the CoinShares report we wrote the miners were counting power instead of hashrate. Galaxy announced 4.2 gigawatts in Texas on September 8th, and it was all AI. They bought one of those sites as a bitcoin mine but never mention bitcoin in the release. Bitdeer did the same on the 14th.
Riot is the one that made it real for me. Rockdale has 700 megawatts. Riot leased 191 of them to an AI lab for $9.1 billion and another 50 to AMD. A third of the biggest mine in the country is rented to people who do not mine.
No one is talking about the grid. Pennsylvania regulators said the grid misses its own reliability target from 2027 through 2030.
Does that make shutoff payments rich enough to bring some machines back? It is the only way back I see, and CoinShares says a price recovery is not it.
This is a really interesting perspective on where Bitcoin mining is heading. The $75.5K average cash cost is especially striking when BTC is trading around the same level, but I think the bigger story is the shift toward AI infrastructure and how miners are responding to better returns per MW. The point that hashrate leaving listed miners doesn’t mean the Bitcoin network is weakening is important too. It feels like the industry is going through a major restructuring rather than simply facing a temporary downturn.