Treasury ETFs saw one of the largest weekly outflows on record—amounting to nearly 0.4% of assets—as the 10-year yield hovered around 4.5%.

The historical data in the chart is what matters.

Whenever this indicator hit a negative extreme—in the episodes marked since 2005—the movement coincided with a local peak in yields, rather than the start of a new leg up.

Flow capitulation tends to be a contrarian signal.

It doesn't pinpoint the exact timing, but once the marginal seller has finished selling, there is little remaining pressure for rates to keep rising.