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What makes this most noteworthy is that the college premium has declined just as the supply of college graduates began to level off in both countries. Typically, we would expect a supply slowdown to put upward pressure on prices (wage premiums) but here we see the opposite.

I mean, the causality can run both ways, soooo....

Moreover, there's a natural limit to the % of people you can grant degrees to and still have the degree actually mean anything

It’s also relevant which students are opting out of college.

My understanding is that it’s white male students leading that decline and male students are the ones who select their majors in what appear to be return maximizing ways.

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Iiiiiinteresting, didn't think about this aspect

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I mean, the causality can run both ways, soooo....

This. Plus it assumes the quality of graduates (as unit of supply) remained constant.

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