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what's there post-bubble?
Hopefully? VERY CHEAP COMPUTE. haha.
Watch the end because he's got some spicy takes on what happens in 2027 (which fwiw I am not entirely sure will happen, but I linked Blok's stonks territory just for that)
The too-big-to-fail mantra will not apply anymore?
He addresses that too. Since you have ongoing cost (burning a billion shitfiatcoins a day on training) what are you going to bail out? It would mean China "wins" if they can just subsidize their way to a superior model in 6 months.
Unless GPT 6 really is AGI (I doubt it but I'll reserve myself some time to find out) I think that being stuck with an inferior thing that doesn't work isn't going to please anyone.
Finished it. Didn't get much work done (I tried to feel less guilty by prompting Claude to do some heavy lifting today), but was def worth a watch.
Watch the end because he's got some spicy takes on what happens in 2027 (which fwiw I am not entirely sure will happen, but I linked Blok's stonks territory just for that)
Wish I could condense these 2 hours into a simple message to convey to my wife, who seems to be putting all her faith in the stock market and big tech these days. I've lost a lot of credibility talking on that topic, as I've been dismissive of it for the last 10 years (she's been proven right that it can only go up), so why would she trust me now?
God, I hate this timeline; it's truly the stupidest of all. I hate the stockmarket and everything it represents.
Zitron has been predicting the end of the entire tech industry within six months for several years now, and misinterpreting the financials that get leaked to him. Much as I’m waiting for the downfall of the hyper scalers so we can get some cheap memory again take what our british muckraker[^1] says with a massive grain of salt
He spins a good tale but i think he’s overly pessimistic for the sake of being contrarian against the valley crowd. Not that they arent overvalued just that they probably survive in the near future
(undisclosed colleague)
They're not wrong, but is Zitron in turn really wrong when he says that they lie all the time, that there's circular moneys going on in ways that are unsustainable, and that the products until now have not lived up to the hype the creators made? Much of this is verified fact, the difference is that he is offended by it, where everyone else seems to really need the break after their multi-whole-coin jpegs went to nil.
The only thing that really made me wow were some of the seedance 2.0 clips, which I don't recall to have seen matched after launch day and I was unable to create good video with it myself. But that's not the kind of disruptive thing that puts us straight into the age of abundance; it's a narrow field.
So, I don't know if it's all going to collapse; I think it's possible, but it's also possible that they manage to avoid it. The lying and printing has to stop at some point tho, I tire of it.
And then people, even stackers that should know better, ask me why I am so autistically retarded that I dislike the system and don't wanna borrow money. Because it's a fucking atrocity, that's why. I don't want to be part of that. Not even when it hurts.
The thing is that most people (caveat: who know how an LLM works) agree they are lying. It's just that only few people seem to care they are lying.
EDIT:
Ah, you're actually saying that:
he is offended by it, where everyone else seems to really need the break after their multi-whole-coin jpegs went to nil.
Seems like footnotes don't render when editing a comment. Or maybe I'm fuzzy on the syntax.
Ah that's it probably. I was in write, and wanted to check whether it renders well by clicking compose. When going back to write, it has this weird habit to add backslashes.
I'm really sorry, it's because compose mode lacks support for footnotes and (also) tables. Compared to other rich text nodes, these require more UI/UX attention and, as such, have been delayed to the next editor enhancement packs. These nodes, at the moment, can only be edited in write (markdown) mode and displayed in compose mode.
The \ backslashes are a way to avoid what-can-be literal Markdown syntax from being recognized by our parser (escaping), the editor adds them automatically when posting in compose mode or switching back to write mode. *This for example should be italic text **and this bold***, but I’m writing this in compose mode.
If you type/edit a [something] in compose, it will add slashes, yes.
Wish I could condense these 2 hours into a simple message to convey to my wife
"What if it's true that they're all lying?"
How dare you imply LLMs are mere probabilities!~~
I probably should finish watching the video, but if his apocalyptic view is right, what's there post-bubble? He says that there is no post-bubble recovery as there was for the dotcom bubble. But then, what is there? No money to build new models; we keep using the same models, using whatever hardware individuals can afford? The whole subsidized AI economy collapses? The too-big-to-fail mantra will not apply anymore? Hard to imagine that it'll just phase out. It's so prevalent in everyone's lives. Compute at scale will happen at some point. Similar to solar panels, it'll become profitable one way or another, no?