Looks like I beat @denlillaapan in sharing this piece by Dalio.
On the one hand, Dalio has done enough pow to understand the mechanics of this keynsian economic system, and all his talk of collapse sounds like music to bitcoiners' ears, especially when he says things like he does here, such as, brace yourselves and buy hard money assets.
On the other hand, he is a product of the same system and pushes people toward gold because he seems to think bitcoin is subject too much to government regulation.
Here's a pretty succinct article explaining where he thinks we stand in 'the big cycle.' Worth a read.
Recently, three events related to the U.S. Treasury bond markets have drawn public attention. For one, Japan sold some of its U.S. Treasury holdings to support the yen, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened in the currency/debt markets to negate some of the resulting market pressures. Second, U.S. bond yields, especially at the long end, have risen alongside dollar weakness under the weight of an increased supply of dollar debt and weakening demand for it. And third, Secretary Bessent announced that the Treasury will purchase U.S. bonds, though its capacity to do so is limited. While most people are inclined to view these as passing events, they are symptoms of a serious debt problem that appears to be progressing into a more advanced stage.
This year, revenue will be roughly $5.5 trillion, while expenditures will be approximately $7.5 trillion, resulting in an anticipated deficit of nearly $2 trillion. Spending therefore exceeds income by roughly 40%. At the same time, federal debt held by the public is approximately $32 trillion, or about six times annual revenue and $240,000 per American household. Interest expenses alone are approaching $1 trillion per year, roughly 20% of revenue and about half the annual deficit.
In addition to interest payments, roughly $10 trillion of maturing principal must be refinanced. As a result, total debt-service requirements today amount to roughly $11 trillion, or about twice annual revenue.
That’s the current situation.
Looking forward, it appears most likely that things will get worse, and I estimate that projected deficits will cause the federal debt to rise to roughly $55 to $60 trillion over the next decade, requiring an additional $25-$30 trillion of debt sales. If that occurs, debt-service burdens will continue rising while increasing pressure is placed on investors to absorb ever-larger supplies of government debt assets. In addition, similarly large increases in debt and equity in supply in the U.S. private sector and in other countries that have to fund their increasing military and other expenditures will greatly add to the overall supply of debt and other financial assets.
No mention of China?
Talk about elephant in the US exceptionalists echo chamber!
It is not a binary contest between gold and Bitcoin.
China is likely to dominate the emerging post petrodollar global payments system.
Learn to think for yourself and consider-
USA lost the trade war.
China now dominates global trade in manufactured goods and commodities.
Since time immemorial the dominant trading nations currency has been the dominant currency of trade.
USA was dominant post WW2 - but is not today.
It is clinging to the petrodollar hegemony it built upon the post WW2 era but the logic and fundamentals of the petrodollar are seriously eroded. $40T debt.
Because western powers have dominated global institutional and financial protocols for 500 years accepting Chinese protocols will take time for western nations as they are losing something they have assumed is their birthright- but it is happening already with the global south increasingly adopting direct bilateral trade settlements and those mediated by China.
USA has demonstrably lost the ability to project its power and maintain stable trade routes, just as Britain did in The Suez Crisis USA is now exposed in The Strait of Hormuz.
The British pound sterling retained its dominance in trade payments until The Suez Crisis.
The transition away from petrodollar dominance has begun and will be swifter than US exceptionalists can imagine.
https://investoffshore.com/chinas-cross-border-digital-rmb-payment-system-challenges-dollar-dominance/
'On March 17, 2025, the People’s Bank of China unveiled a pivotal shift in global finance: the digital RMB cross-border settlement system is now fully connected to the ten ASEAN nations and six Middle Eastern countries. This move instantly expands digital yuan interoperability to cover nearly 38% of global trade, enabling participants to bypass the SWIFT network long dominated by the U.S. dollar. In the words of The Economist, this is a “Bretton Woods System 2.0 Outpost Battle,” and blockchain is the new battlefield.
While the legacy SWIFT infrastructure still endures 3–5 day delays for cross-border transactions, China’s digital currency bridge compresses settlement time to just 7 seconds. In a landmark trial between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi, a payment from a Chinese firm to a Middle Eastern supplier was completed in real-time—without six layers of intermediary banks, and at 98% lower transaction costs. This “lightning settlement” is reshaping expectations for global capital flow.
The implications extend far beyond speed and cost. The digital RMB’s blockchain architecture embeds automated compliance features, such as traceability and anti-money laundering protocols, directly into each transaction. For example, in the China-Indonesia “Two Countries, Two Parks” initiative, a digital RMB cross-border payment cleared in 8 seconds—a process 100 times more efficient than traditional banking methods. These efficiencies have already attracted 23 central banks to join China’s digital currency bridge trials. Notably, Middle Eastern energy exporters report a 75% reduction in settlement costs.
This technological leap is redefining financial sovereignty. Where previous U.S.-led sanctions relied on cutting off SWIFT access—as seen with Iran—China has been busy establishing RMB-centric payment loops across Southeast Asia. In 2024, cross-border RMB settlements with ASEAN surpassed 5.8 trillion yuan, more than double the volume recorded in 2021. Countries like Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand have not only added the yuan to their reserves but are now settling oil trades in digital RMB.
What’s more, China’s ambitions for the digital RMB extend beyond fintech. The currency serves as a strategic pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative, seamlessly integrated with Beidou satellite navigation and quantum communication to forge a “Digital Silk Road.” In infrastructure mega-projects like the China-Laos Railway and Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail, the digital yuan is used to settle freight, wages, and logistics in real-time. European automakers, too, are adopting digital RMB for Arctic route trade, boosting efficiency by up to 400%.
Today, over 87% of countries worldwide are now compatible with the digital RMB system, and cross-border payments have topped $1.2 trillion USD. While Washington debates the future of the dollar in a digital age, Beijing has already built a blockchain-based global settlement network spanning more than 200 countries.
This is more than just a shift in monetary plumbing—it’s a quiet but seismic reordering of global economic influence. For international investors, especially those seeking alternatives beyond U.S.-centric finance, China’s digital RMB strategy is a powerful signal of where the future may be headed'
The paragraph that comes before this sounds disastrous.
I think I've felt this sensation, but I suspect the reality will not be good. Debt will pile up, governments will resort to increasingly absurd practices, taxes and confiscation will go up. And I'm not sure that the world runs to the safety of Bitcoin that quickly. There may be a lengthy time of horror where governments try to inflate their problems away, and we all get drowned.
I concur. I don't wish it on the world at all, but what I meant is Dalio's discourse often aligns with what bitcoiners have been saying is going to happen since pretty much the genesis block. We can logically say we are prepared for one scenario while at the same time not wanting the same. Idk, it's a bit of a quandary, because it feels like most bitcoiners your hear online want to be right so badly that they they will cheer on this type of thing, even when it means everyone gets totally hosed.
You are just circle jerking around the truth.
China won the trade war and USA lost Hormuz.
It is the end of the petrodollar empire.
No mention of China?
Talk about elephant in the US exceptionalists echo chamber!
It is not a binary contest between gold and Bitcoin.
China is likely to dominate the emerging post petrodollar global payments system.
Learn to think for yourself and consider-
USA lost the trade war.
China now dominates global trade in manufactured goods and commodities.
Since time immemorial the dominant trading nations currency has been the dominant currency of trade.
USA was dominant post WW2 - but is not today.
It is clinging to the petrodollar hegemony it built upon the post WW2 era but the logic and fundamentals of the petrodollar are seriously eroded. $40T debt.
Because western powers have dominated global institutional and financial protocols for 500 years accepting Chinese protocols will take time for western nations as they are losing something they have assumed is their birthright- but it is happening already with the global south increasingly adopting direct bilateral trade settlements and those mediated by China.
USA has demonstrably lost the ability to project its power and maintain stable trade routes, just as Britain did in The Suez Crisis USA is now exposed in The Strait of Hormuz.
The British pound sterling retained its dominance in trade payments until The Suez Crisis.
The transition away from petrodollar dominance has begun and will be swifter than US exceptionalists can imagine.
https://m.stacker.news/154377
https://investoffshore.com/chinas-cross-border-digital-rmb-payment-system-challenges-dollar-dominance/
'On March 17, 2025, the People’s Bank of China unveiled a pivotal shift in global finance: the digital RMB cross-border settlement system is now fully connected to the ten ASEAN nations and six Middle Eastern countries. This move instantly expands digital yuan interoperability to cover nearly 38% of global trade, enabling participants to bypass the SWIFT network long dominated by the U.S. dollar. In the words of The Economist, this is a “Bretton Woods System 2.0 Outpost Battle,” and blockchain is the new battlefield.
While the legacy SWIFT infrastructure still endures 3–5 day delays for cross-border transactions, China’s digital currency bridge compresses settlement time to just 7 seconds. In a landmark trial between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi, a payment from a Chinese firm to a Middle Eastern supplier was completed in real-time—without six layers of intermediary banks, and at 98% lower transaction costs. This “lightning settlement” is reshaping expectations for global capital flow.
The implications extend far beyond speed and cost. The digital RMB’s blockchain architecture embeds automated compliance features, such as traceability and anti-money laundering protocols, directly into each transaction. For example, in the China-Indonesia “Two Countries, Two Parks” initiative, a digital RMB cross-border payment cleared in 8 seconds—a process 100 times more efficient than traditional banking methods. These efficiencies have already attracted 23 central banks to join China’s digital currency bridge trials. Notably, Middle Eastern energy exporters report a 75% reduction in settlement costs.
This technological leap is redefining financial sovereignty. Where previous U.S.-led sanctions relied on cutting off SWIFT access—as seen with Iran—China has been busy establishing RMB-centric payment loops across Southeast Asia. In 2024, cross-border RMB settlements with ASEAN surpassed 5.8 trillion yuan, more than double the volume recorded in 2021. Countries like Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand have not only added the yuan to their reserves but are now settling oil trades in digital RMB.
What’s more, China’s ambitions for the digital RMB extend beyond fintech. The currency serves as a strategic pillar of the Belt and Road Initiative, seamlessly integrated with Beidou satellite navigation and quantum communication to forge a “Digital Silk Road.” In infrastructure mega-projects like the China-Laos Railway and Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail, the digital yuan is used to settle freight, wages, and logistics in real-time. European automakers, too, are adopting digital RMB for Arctic route trade, boosting efficiency by up to 400%.
Today, over 87% of countries worldwide are now compatible with the digital RMB system, and cross-border payments have topped $1.2 trillion USD. While Washington debates the future of the dollar in a digital age, Beijing has already built a blockchain-based global settlement network spanning more than 200 countries.
This is more than just a shift in monetary plumbing—it’s a quiet but seismic reordering of global economic influence. For international investors, especially those seeking alternatives beyond U.S.-centric finance, China’s digital RMB strategy is a powerful signal of where the future may be headed.'