eeeh?
Here’s a fun NBER paper where some economists surveyed bond investors, ordinary voters and people with economics or finance degrees about the US government debt load.
Once the respondents were shown the current debt level and the latest Congressional Budget Office forecasts, they increased their estimated probability of a debt crisis by another 14.9 percentage points.
Yeah, I mean, that's understandable. Very terrible forecasts
ordinary voters feared a debt crisis more than bond investors, but bond investors were more worried than finance and economics grads. The last group were actually the most accurate when guessing the debt-to-GDP ratio. However, econ/finance grads and bond investors were roughly just as likely to have taken any actual action on their investments as a result of their expectations.
"While the music is playing you still gotta dance, presumably."
archive:
https://archive.md/L8RM7
Have you ever considered whether debt doomers are just like the climate doomers?
They keep saying it's coming, but it never comes