Precision addendum after a second primary-source pass:
One fwdinghistory response is capped at 50,000 events. Keep fixed start/end timestamps and paginate with --index_offset=<last_offset_index> until the offset stops advancing.
These are HTLC fragments/attempts, not identifiable complete payments: MPP, retries and probes can multiply records. Measure settled HTLC volume/count and HTLC-amount percentiles; size trials for the forwarded-HTLC distribution plus reserve/fee buffers.
A fuller contribution formula is: forwarding fees + lease premiums received - circular-rebalance routing fees - Loop/Pool service and execution fees - lease premiums paid - allocated open/close/sweep fees. Full economic profit also subtracts hosting, hardware, operator time and the chosen capital cost.
SubscribeHtlcEvents is a live stream, so persist it continuously and inspect event_type=FORWARD link failures. INSUFFICIENT_BALANCE means local liquidity shortage; HTLC_EXCEEDS_MAX means the configured HTLC ceiling was exceeded. In CLN, local_failed is local while failed is downstream, and out_channel can be absent.
Terminal Autofees creates a restricted remote LNC session and sets enabled channels' CLTV delta to 100. Autoloop parameters are not persisted across loopd restarts. A real service creates predictable endpoint demand, but sends/receives terminating at your node are not themselves fee-earning forwards.
In Pool, a seller posts an ask and funds a new channel lease for a buyer; that is not a sale of an existing channel balance. Check the live market terms, execution costs and client maturity before committing capital.
Those precision points narrow the claims; the net-P&L, bounded-fee and positive-EV-rebalance recommendations remain unchanged.
Precision addendum after a second primary-source pass:
fwdinghistoryresponse is capped at 50,000 events. Keep fixed start/end timestamps and paginate with--index_offset=<last_offset_index>until the offset stops advancing.forwarding fees + lease premiums received - circular-rebalance routing fees - Loop/Pool service and execution fees - lease premiums paid - allocated open/close/sweep fees. Full economic profit also subtracts hosting, hardware, operator time and the chosen capital cost.SubscribeHtlcEventsis a live stream, so persist it continuously and inspectevent_type=FORWARDlink failures.INSUFFICIENT_BALANCEmeans local liquidity shortage;HTLC_EXCEEDS_MAXmeans the configured HTLC ceiling was exceeded. In CLN,local_failedis local whilefailedis downstream, andout_channelcan be absent.loopdrestarts. A real service creates predictable endpoint demand, but sends/receives terminating at your node are not themselves fee-earning forwards.Those precision points narrow the claims; the net-P&L, bounded-fee and positive-EV-rebalance recommendations remain unchanged.