Fighting a defensive war is one thing going on the offensive and sustaining an offensive operation is a completely different beast.
"Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions," the Iranian official said, adding that Tehran would conduct a "timely and precise" military attack to break the U.S. naval blockade if diplomacy failed.
Given the new ties countries like Saudi Arabia have signed with the likes of Turkey this would be a pretty wild step by Iran. Saudi is already dealing with Iran’s last remaining proxy, the Houthi’s, launching attacks in the Red Sea so for Iran to threaten to increase this type behavior would easily add Turkey to the equation.
Turkey is a top 10 military in the world, the second largest NATO force (behind the U.S.), and has been undergoing a massive modernization effort. Turkish President Erdogan has shown he wants Turkey to be a leading power in the Middle East and has cut his power projection with Syria.
Activation of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement by the Saudi’s would open up two land fronts on opposite sides of Iran (Turkey in the West and Pakistan in the East). It isn’t crazy to imagine that the rest of the Gulf States (UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar) would also be willing to lend a hand to stop attacks on their countries. The two Gulf States that might not would be Iraq (who might require assistance themselves to deal with the Iranian backed militias in its territory) and Oman (who based on its history would likely remain the back channel between the two sides to try and deescalate any conflict that possibly breaks out).
Do you think Trump foresaw how this would play out?
I’d say No and Yes. The reason I say that is he would have been presented this as a possibility by the military so he would have been aware. That being said I feel like he felt Iran would cave hence the reason I said no and yes lol.
I think he has been surprised by Europes response and I have been to because everyone calls them a terror regime and Europe, rightfully so, blames them for a lot of the migratory crisis the continent faces. Due to the fact that even though they don’t want to they still heavily rely on the U.S. military restriction of air bases was pretty surprising to me. I’m not sure that many would have seen that even if we are upsetting them with how Trump has handled Europe. These actions play in his favor when he complains about NATO so I see that as a dumb self inflicted gun shot since the U.S. is able to fly its planes directly to the Middle East they just prefer to have options like landing in Spain or Italy.
Ready for Taiwan or Lithuania to pop off already, getting bored with this psyop.
Worse than the 6th season of Billions, no magnetic antagonist, lowered stakes, exhausted formula.
Hope things pick up in season 7.