Billionaire VC Tim Draper has a new Bitcoin prediction, and $250K apparently isn't bullish enough anymore. His long-term target...infinity against the dollar.
The argument is actually more interesting than the headline. Draper sees a domino effect, businesses accept Bitcoin → payment tools make BTC cheaper than credit cards → merchants increasingly prefer BTC → people increasingly question why they're holding depreciating fiat → eventually the dollar becomes the thing nobody wants.
Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million. Dollars don't. If the denominator keeps losing value indefinitely, Draper's argument is that BTC/USD ultimately has no ceiling.
Now, Draper's forecasting record deserves a giant asterisk. He correctly called $10K Bitcoin years ago, but his famous $250K prediction has been pushed back repeatedly. Still, I think the more interesting question isn't whether Bitcoin literally goes to "infinity," but whether we eventually reach the point where pricing Bitcoin in dollars stops being the useful measurement.
If Bitcoin actually became money rather than primarily an asset people buy and hold, what would you price things in? Maybe the endgame isn't $1 million Bitcoin...maybe it's 1 BTC = 1 BTC.
That point is a state of mind and a matter of perspective.
Good point, so transition mentally before economically. Like people start asking "how many sats does this cost?" instead of "what is my bitcoin worth?"
And thinking about the problem across time. How many sats will this cost in four years, in comparison to how much I can earn today.