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My guess is they'll put a "proof of sincerity" clause meaning you need to have been on hormone blockers for X years, a doctors note from an approved doctor, etc, in order to qualify.

The question is whether Kanter and White would sue them for putting the clause in retroactively, specifically to block them from entering the draft.

My guess is the courts would not favor Kanter and White.

  1. Players are often drafted as teenagers, so the requirement for years of hormone blockers is problematic.
  2. That would exclude pre-op trans people and changes the standard from identity to physical characteristics, which is also problematic.
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Your mistake is thinking that any of this is motivated by an internally consistent philosophy

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Au contraire, I think it’s based on a series of irrational “problematic” landmines.

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And that's where this gets interesting. Every attempt to patch the loophole seems to require another arbitrary line.

Years of hormones? How many?
Surgery? Then identity alone isn't enough. Doctor's certification? Now a doctor determines whether your identity is legitimate. No medical requirements? Then what's the principled basis for rejecting Kanter?

At some point the simplest rule becomes the one everyone spent years insisting was unnecessarily complicated, women's professional basketball is for biological females.

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