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With Iran, it seems the US have finally found their match,

The US military is struggling in Iran, the Russian military is failing in Ukraine. Somehow 3rd tier armies are running circle around what we thought of as world powers. Maybe there is a meta reason for this. Maybe, the current technological meta favors underdogs. If I were Xi, I'd think twice about attacking Taiwan

I think that there are two aspects of this:

  • Improvement in technology and access to cheap drones. This counters a huge advantage that well-funded militaries used to have, which is precision munitions. Such munition is expensive due to autonomous guiding which has to ingest, process and act on outside information, which used to be extremely expensive to do. Drones allow offloading of the processing and action to a human controller who is cheap, because he/she does not get destroyed with the weapon and can be employed many times.
  • Both Ukraine and Iran have allies who provide them with satellite-based intelligence. That means they can have almost real-time view of the battlefield, can target their drones accurately and do considerable damage with quick damage assessment and possible re-strike if needed. Satellite intel is generally available only to major powers or superpowers, but with willing allies, even a small-budget military can get access to it and use it to deadly effect.

Both of these advancements dispoportionately favour the defender compared to the aggressor, as evidenced by the two wars in Iran and Ukraine. The defender is capable of targeting enemy bases and larger groupings of units, whereas the attacker is hard-pressed to find distributed defenders. I think that successfully conducting a war of conquest is nearly impossible these days against a determined nation.

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It was great, I completely agree, I think the same thing. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Taiwan has specifically planned something like this in the years it has felt this danger,,? Because Iran has spent about 30 years on this and trained its forces like this. Let me be more clear. Think about it. A military person who entered an officer and military university in Iran about 30 years ago and has become a commander after 30 years and trains the forces under his command has been trained in exactly this war and has also trained others. Or in terms of military preparations, Iran made the right decision 30 years ago, instead of investing in and strengthening its air force, to build cheap drones and missiles. And to build tunnels several kilometers long and deep 500 meters under the most mountainous areas of Iran. Now you might say that Iran's air force has weakened, that's absolutely true, but if Iran had developed its air force 30 years ago, could it have confronted America now? I'll tell you the answer, no, it was impossible for it to have an air force now that could confront America and not be defeated because it was practically impossible under the sanctions, a third world country like Iran, which had fought Iraq for 8 years under Saddam with empty hands and was considered a scorched earth, to have an air force as powerful as America's today 30 years later. This is a long discussion that I wrote about and I'll try to share in the form of a post. Thank you for your comments.

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