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Until we decide how we are going to really handle these markets, which cover everything, we are going to continue to see these issues. Props to Kalshi for catching it but catching it still doesnt address the issue of people actually executing these trades and affecting the prediction markets. Even with the CFTC investigating I am not sure what exactly the punishment would be for this and if the punishment is bad enough to stop the underlying crime itself.

Pay attention to the resolution criteria and be wary of poorly specified markets.

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  • Over time, rational people without private information should learn not to participate in gameable markets
  • Liquidity in gameable markets should dry up
  • Perhaps there remains a certain percentage of the population who are gambling addicts / think they're smarter / don't learn
  • When they lose their shirt, should society pick up the tab for them?

Seems to me that everything always comes down to whether we let people live with the consequences of their decisions

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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @unboiled 32m
Seems to me that everything always comes down to whether we let people live with the consequences of their decisions

What an anachronistic thing to say when everyone always blames every bad outcome on someone else. I love it.

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I’m all for cutting off all government benefits to anyone engaged in no-no behavior.

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doesn't really matter if you're for it, what matters is what everyone else thinks

democracy kinda sux

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If these markets can exist permissionlessly, or effectively so, then democracy can go pound sand.

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that's insider trading IMO

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What is the crime here exactly? Getting paid to leak information early?

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3 sats \ 0 replies \ @Zion 7h

Every one is becoming an insider/trader with the exposure of prediction marketing

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