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I find Voskuil's writing difficult to think through, and do believe I managed to get the Fragmentation Principle backwards.
I don't have recent facts and I don't have recent insights into pool operator relations either.
I'm trying to get some of the miners to do AMAs in the next few weeks. I believe we will have Luxor's CEO at the end of July, and I've reached out to Antpool's CEO (no idea if I'll get a response). I'd be very curious how they talk about any of this (if they even want to talk about it).
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Confirm that that seems to be close to what I meant, but note that I only did that to entertain the notion that there is a situation in which to be mindful of on which chain your tx lives (and then honestly, really only for LN channels). I didn't simulate it but simply took the range (ultimately from https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.0243) that if the tips stay close to each other, 33-66% is committed to one fork side at all costs and 33-66% is committed to the other fork side, also at all costs, then there is a 0-33% danger zone where an impartial middle can keep both chaintips alive.
I'm not sure how the pools-of-pools that are the ultimate guarantor of FPPS payouts relate nowadays. Are there still 2 camps and how are they sized? I don't have recent facts and I don't have recent insights into pool operator relations either. My facts are dated, so I don't know. Example unknown: what's the Ant/F2/Spider/Via relation like these days and how many miners are going to leave these pools come flag day?
Note that I don't see any evidence that there is such a scenario playing out, but since I cannot with a straight face say that I know what's going to happen, I don't want to dismiss it either.
Yeah, read that again. I think that Voskuil argues the opposite - as long as there is conviction.
The only thing that can kill either chaintip is when no one mines it anymore (= lack of conviction.) Taking into account #1524412, it sounds like fork conviction is waning, but:
So time will have to tell.