Ah, as if I didn't have enough good arguments presented to me in favor of/against prediction markets (betting) these days.

Here's our friend Quoth eloquently riffing on the fact that everything from financial markets to sports betting seems fake these days. #1521591, #1524119

McGregor looked compromised almost immediately, and what was supposed to be a memorable main event became a disappointment as quickly as it started. Half the betting public celebrated because their tickets cashed. The other half immediately tore theirs up. But almost everyone walked away feeling cheated because the fight itself never really happened.

"That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting.""That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting."

The entertainment itself gets replaced by financial outcomes. Instead of appreciating great competition, we’re constantly evaluating whether our bet is alive or dead. The event stops being the product. The wager becomes the product.

The average person has absolutely no idea where the informational playing field begins or ends anymore. If leagues, athletes, officials, betting syndicates, insiders and sportsbooks all potentially possess information before the public does, how exactly is the average fan supposed to believe they’re making informed decisions?

aaaand, same in finance:

Over the last six months alone, there have been a string of remarkably well-timed options trades, commodity bets, and prediction market wagers placed just ahead of major Trump administration announcements on tariffs, geopolitical events, and other market-moving decisions.

"Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t.""Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t."

Ah, yes. Keynesian beauty contests return with a vengeance!

"We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation""We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation"

We aren’t encouraging patience or discipline, we’re encouraging impulsivity. Every moment becomes another opportunity to chase dopamine. Every near miss becomes an excuse to reload. Every loss becomes a reason to get even. It’s the exact same psychological machinery that exists in day trading, prediction markets, leveraged crypto, online casinos and social media. [...] The industries are different, but the business model is identical: monetize attention by keeping people emotionally activated every waking minute of the day. People celebrate that you can trade crypto 24/7.

Very persuasive rant. What are we doing??Very persuasive rant. What are we doing??

Is this another smartphone moment -- looks amazing and impressive in the moment, only to ruin us as persons and society later on...?