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245 sats \ 3 replies \ @crrdlx 29 Jun \ on: On Overconfidence bitcoin

You're right, of course, in that no one knows exactly how BIP-110 will play out. That's kind of like saying, "I'm not sure if it will rain tomorrow." We can make predictions, but we don't really know.

That said, you could say which one your favor, or which path will likely pan out. That's okay. Staying in the middle seems like playing both sides so that you don't get burnt one day.

I'll give my "position", for lack of better terms:

I tend to lean against BIP-110. Here's how I think it will pan out:

  1. early August, Knotsers reject a block, a "fork" happens, but nothing seems any different
  2. we now have two chains, though all seems the same; did anything actually happen?
  3. as time and blocks move on, there is becomes a discrepancy (as there are now two chains)
  4. one chain will need to distinguish itself, if only to simply explain the discrepancies that are in question
  5. so, now we have BTC (which we currently have) and the Knots BTC, call it KNOTSBTC
  6. people get confused at all this; they go to resources and look up bitcoin prices and such; undoubtedly, BTC refers to the Bitcoin, the current BTC that we know
  7. in fact, there is no KNOTSBTC on any exchange or media outlet to reference; people get more confused
  8. Just like with ETH after the DAO situation, we eventually wind up with two chains, two tickers: a large-and-dominant one (BTC) and a niche-one (KNOTSBTC). This is fine. Things go on, people will fuss and rant about the "real bitcoin", but's the reality will be that we simply have two chains: BTC and KNOTSBTC
  9. All of this questioning, bickering, infighting/"debate", is a hindrance to bitcoin evolving and growing. Normies and markets dislike discord.

All this said, I'm largely uninterested. Let's just let the market work this all out, as it eventually does with everything. Maybe that's your position Jimmy and I can respect that. I guess, as a default, I lean toward innovation over ossification. And, if it can be boiled down to those binary sides, I lean against BIP-110 for (1) allowing the free market to decide and (2) innovation over ossification.

The good news: we can just sit back, let it happen, watch with popcorn, and the free market and freedom in economics will work it all out.

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103 sats \ 2 replies \ @optimism 30 Jun

Neither of the 2 supporters that we had an AMA with seem to be willing to fork off over this:

  1. Bob Burnett said so explicitly
  2. Hunter Beast implicitly said it

So, I don't think there will be a minority hardfork, unless it is a close call.

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1 sat \ 1 reply \ @denlillaapan 3 Jul

Have you put your sats behind that?? hashtag Predyx!

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1 sat \ 0 replies \ @crrdlx 5 Jul

Fair question, but no. Saying I'm not much of a gambler is an understatement. I'll put my casino limit of $1 in a slot machine, bet it all (yolo!), and walk away win or lose. That's how I roll. I do love horse racing, wrote about it at #973869 but again, have gone to the races solely to watch them and never even bet. My track max is $20, usually split with my wife.

I see on predyx a yes is for BIP-110 "happening" is 15 cents and no is 85. Since I lean no, thats not a great return on the risk...paying 85 sats for the chance to get 15. I'll just let my words stand for themselves. That's good enough for me.

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