Miss Toothfairy is out in the FT actually talking sense for once. Accidentally, so, I should say because she’s out for orange (well, also golden…) blood.

...she just happens to be right that both assets have sucked donkey arse (..."recently," "for now," lower your tp, bruh -- whatever)

In the good old days, you could rely on it to rise in times of severe geopolitical or market stress, as people sought a haven. Sure, you can paint your own adventure on to gold, and make a case for buying it when yields are falling (less opportunity cost for buying a non-yielding asset); or when yields are rising (dollar debasement, inflation hedge); or honestly whatever you like. But you knew that gold loves fear, fear loves gold.

And then weird stuff happened to gold’s financial relationships:

As I’ve written (and said), gold has been behaving much more like a risk asset, a chancy bet rather than a safe retreat. As central bank buying gave way to retail excitement, the traditional inverse correlation between gold and real interest rates broke down.

“Exuberance, not fear, drove gold and silver up to extraordinary heights at the start of this year”“Exuberance, not fear, drove gold and silver up to extraordinary heights at the start of this year”

Stocks recovered from the Iran shock, and then some, but gold is stuck in a rut. And in the past few days, as tech stocks have been whacked, gold has been whacked with them. Tails you lose, heads you also lose?

Yup, just altogether crap.

= conclusion? “the fizzy speculative moment has passed and it’s likely to go nowhere for a while.”

The Bitcoin section is even more sad…round-trip in two years, all just a silly Trump play.The Bitcoin section is even more sad…round-trip in two years, all just a silly Trump play.

Actually, it’s even worse than that, bitcoin hitting 61k in 2021 and, checks notes, sitting at 61k today, freakin’ 5 years and an inflationary mania later. Pathetic, underwhelming, orange dreams dead etc.

Toothfary’s colleage (Hakyung Kim) goes “Crypto defenders are quick to say that the sell-off is prompted by the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, which will kill speculative appetite. “

…of course, we blame Saylor for the collapse (#1504544 #1504781)

When we wrote about the crypto winter in December, when bitcoin was still trading at about $90,000, crypto defenders had pointed fingers for its decline at the Bank of Japan’s rate increase and the unravelling of the yen carry trade. Rates and liquidity are always the convenient explanation when bitcoin falls, but the real issue is that it has no fundamental value.

Or that.

Unhedged has long thought that bitcoin is a purely speculative asset. Are retail investors coming around to our view? Maybe, but a more likely explanation is that the retail risk junkies are speculating elsewhere.

Speculating bs is funnier elsewhere: AI, SpaceX, prediction markets. #1504781

“Who needs bitcoin?”“Who needs bitcoin?”

Dude has a point.

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