Indigestion is coming #1501767

...at least so it seems from red-light therapy this last week.

Recap, ICYMI: SpaceX raising a ton of dough, largest IPO blah-blah American history. Small float (I believe 5%?) and consequently with a gargantuan valuation.

...and then OpenAI, too, a ton of money. And as we learned a few days ago, Google is tapping the markets too -- inclusive of the equities. lots of fiat flowing that way

This month Alphabet, Google’s corporate parent, said it would issue $85bn in new shares. And the club’s newest members are tapping the stockmarket. Simultaneously, white-collar workers are perhaps most in danger of seeing AI automate their jobs and immiserate their pension pots.

...turns out, lots of bitcoin going that way too. Orange coin out, fancy multiscalar server halls producing bullshit-slop IN.

No Natural buyersNo Natural buyers

A bit like STRC, nobody to swallow it:

Steve Sosnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, one of the world’s biggest online trading platforms, has warned of the “existential risk” the listings pose. A particular worry is that compilers of stockmarket indices will grant the gigantic trio fast-track entry to their benchmarks. That would prompt tracker funds with trillions of dollars in assets to buy the newly minted shares days after they are issued. After exhausting a big pool of buyers straight away, who will be left?

Numerically, it shouldn't be a big deal but somehow probably is (margins and liquidity and all that)

SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are collectively targeting $200bn-odd. Yet this is a rounding error in America’s bourses. Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $77trn; those in the narrower (but more widely tracked) S&P 500 index of big companies are worth $65trn.

"Expect investors to go gaga for the giga-IPOs.""Expect investors to go gaga for the giga-IPOs."

Update: OOOH I missed the fuck-the-boomers comment in there:

For years, notes Victor Haghani of Elm Wealth, an investment firm, capital has been abundant and shares increasingly scarce. Tech giants have generated so much cash that they have been buying back shares rather than issuing new ones at the same time as white-collar workers have ploughed retirement savings into the market. This has driven up share prices.

Fuck. The. Boomers.

archive: https://archive.md/sU56y