OPINION: With global attention focused on how the conflict in the Middle East could affect shipping routes and markets for New Zealand exporters, it is easy to overlook the scale and importance of another market that has underpinned our export success for decades.
China is one of New Zealand’s largest and most valuable trading partners, but how did we reach the point where such a relatively small country became such a significant food supplier to such a vast market?
Despite 15 years working in China, I’m still regularly taken aback by the numbers.
China is the world’s largest trading nation and the top trading partner for more than 120 countries. It is the world’s most competitive food market, and while more than 180 countries export food to China, it is remarkable that our small, faraway land of just 5.3 million people has out-exported every other nation.
This was partly shaped by geopolitical tensions affecting former top suppliers. But even without that disruption, New Zealand remains consistently among China’s top five food exporters. That is no small feat.
New Zealand has punched above its weight in China thanks to long-standing government-to-government relationships, sustained investment on the ground, the way Kiwis do business, and a reputation for trust and quality.
When New Zealand became the first OECD country to sign a Free Trade Agreement with China in 2008, it built on decades of trust following our early recognition of the People’s Republic of China in 1972 and a largely independent foreign policy.
That political goodwill was matched by commercial commitment: deepening diplomatic engagement, countless great initiatives from NZTE, and spaces like NZ Central in Shanghai. Primary Collaboration New Zealand provides a best-in-class launch pad for exporters navigating China’s complexity.
Many exporters have invested to be on the ground, including Fonterra’s large local teams and research facilities, Zespri, Silver Fern Farms, Rockit Apples, K9 Natural, Synlait, and dozens of others. This proximity allows New Zealand companies to better track China’s fast-moving market shifts and build deeper relationships.
Relationships are a key driver of New Zealand’s success. In a market where guanxi still matters, New Zealand’s combination of confidence and humility resonates. Compared with the swagger of some competitors, Kiwi exporters tend to show up curious, pragmatic, and open. As a bicultural country, we’re also better attuned to cultural nuance than many monocultural exporters.
All of this is reinforced by something harder to manufacture: trust. New Zealand consistently ranks at or near the top as a source of high-quality, safe food. Many Chinese consumers associate New Zealand with clean air, sunshine, and open spaces. It all provides a powerful reinforcement for our quality and purity.
These fundamentals put New Zealand in a strong position as China’s food market evolves. The average Chinese adult is now more than 10 times wealthier than in 2000. As wealth has grown, diets have diversified and premiumised. Meat consumption has doubled over that period. Purchase behaviour is splitting into two distinct types: price-sensitive purchases and purchases based on health, quality, and provenance. The latter is where New Zealand sits well.
China’s Tier 1 cities are now mature, but the next wave of opportunity sits in “lower-tier” cities. There are hundreds of urban centres larger than Auckland becoming rapidly more sophisticated in taste and behaviour. These consumers are following Shanghai and Beijing: drinking more coffee, eating more imported fruit, and shifting from pork toward red meat.
In 2018, an African Swine Fever outbreak pushed consumers to explore alternative proteins. The longer-term driver is health: growing concern around intensive pig farming (with some pigs reared in towers 26 storeys high), food safety, and ultra-processed diets. This aligns with rising interest in whole foods, protein quality, and traceability. New Zealand’s red meat fits neatly into this narrative.
Few categories are better positioned to ride these shifts than New Zealand red meat. Our story aligns with China’s health narrative, and our scale and consistency fit China’s supply chain demands. Our food safety systems, transparency, and provenance cues map well to consumer anxieties about food quality. And importantly, New Zealand red meat is earning increasing credibility in both premium foodservice and everyday home cooking, two channels growing in different ways.
China is not an easy market by any measure. It is more competitive and more dynamic than any other on the planet. But with disciplined positioning, deeper market literacy, and continued investment in relationships and on-the-ground capability, New Zealand can build on its natural advantages and turn the trust we’ve earned into long-term value for our farmers and meat exporters.
Mark Tanner is managing director of China Skinny, one of the world’s foremost China marketing experts.
This explains your world view a lot
In part yes it has shaped my viewpoint. Growing up in the 1960s and 70s NZ was a very closed economy- we relied mostly on Britain as the market for our produce...and for the supply of manufactured goods although some came from the US and elsewhere too.
When Britain joined the EEC we lost that traditional market and were forced to look for new markets which have included the middle east, Russia, Latin America and China. China has been by far the best economic partner for NZ over the last 30 years. USA would never give us a FTA but 'communist' China did!
Post Deng China has embraced state capitalism and free trade and enterprise.
I began importing Chinese products in the early 2000s and became fascinated with the country- learning its history and contemporary development was a very interesting past-time. Peter Hesslers books on China are a great way for a westerner to gain some understanding of this rather alien culture.
China has beaten the 'capitalist' west at its own game- and they have not forgotten The Opium Wars.
The ignorance and arrogance of many westerners on China is both tragic and dangerous.
The hypocrisy of western imperialism is probably or probably will be matched by similar contradictions in Chinese culture but right now, China offers many nations the best trading partner and that is why 120 nations biggest trading partner today is China.
Why didn’t NZ trade with the USA?
We do to the extent we can- USA is a big market now for our red meats, but USA has always refused to give us a Free Trade Agreement.
We have had an FTA with China since 2008- the first western democracy to gain one.
We have a FTA with Australia (since the 1980s) and Singapore and many other countries including recently India, but USA has always refused, probably because of the powerful farming lobby in the US.
Claims that USA is a free enterprise country simply is not credible from the point of view of New Zealand when USA has always put tariffs and or quotas on our exports there to protect its less efficient farmers.
Do you know what the tariff is?
No I was never in exporting but I do know successive NZ governments have tried and failed to negotiate a FTA with USA.
There was a close call with the TPPA but Trump ditched US participation in it - it is still somewhat alive now with Japan, Australia, NZ and other Asia-Pacific countries going it alone without US involvement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/about-us/who-we-are/treaties/trans-pacific-partnership-agreement-tpp
I would guess the US tariffs on NZ exports vary depending on product but pretty sure its mostly on the primary produce that is the bulk of what we export- dairy, red meats, seafoods, timber, and wine etc.
China loves all these products as they has a large need for imported food and at the same time can sell us the manufactured goods we need and cannot efficiently produce ourselves.
Watching the decimation of western produced manufactured goods has been frightening but its free trade and markets at work like it or not.
The wests ability to produce the wide range of manufactured goods that are needed to operate an economy has been dangerously depleted.
For NZ to lose supply of Chinese manufactured goods now would imply a huge increase in costs and inflation.
Economic dependency of NZ on China is now well advanced...and we are far from alone!
Just shocked why the USA is so hostile to NZ ag products.
Canada too- our dairy products are cheaper and arguably better quality than US and Canadian dairy products.
Producer lobbys in many countries everywhere have huge sway over their governments.
With our new FTA with India I understand there was huge resistance on dairy too because again we are simply more efficient producer than India but India have a powerful farmer lobby group.
But yeah it makes a mockery of US claims to be free trade advocate when US lobbys can so consistently block free trade with long time friendly nations like New Zealand.
A growing number of US traditional allies are now actively forming stronger trade groupings like the TPP as US goes increasingly protectionist...it is imo a lose lose outcome but one that US has chosen.