Everyone who's been around long enough has seen it. Halving, run-up, blow off top, bear market. Repeat. The pattern is clean enough that people build retirement timelines around it.

I get it. I did the same thing mentally for a while.

But there's something worth saying about the trap that creates. When you're managing around a cycle you expect, you're already thinking about an exit. Maybe not consciously. But the question "when do I take profits" is already embedded in the framing. And that's a different psychological posture than "this is where I store my labor indefinitely."

The people who got wrecked in past cycles weren't mostly the ones who held through. They were the ones who timed wrong. Bought near the top thinking they'd sell higher. Sold the bottom thinking it'd go lower.

The 4-year cycle is real as a description of what has happened. It's much weaker as a prediction of what will happen next. Institutions and corporations are buying now. Those buyers dont sell at the blow off top. They hold.

If the marginal buyer has changed, the exit dynamics change too. Maybe the cycle continues. Maybe it compresses. Maybe the dips get shallower as the base of long term holders deepens.

I dont know. Nobody does. What I know is that trying to play the cycle has a consistent track record of burning people who thought they were smarter than the price.

The boring answer: stack consistently, dont watch the price daily, let compounding do the work. People get Bitcoin at the price they deserve.