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what is this hunched based on?
Fair question. What is this or any hunch based on, who knows? But I'd say a hunch is the spilling out of the brew and ferment of whatever you've picked up or observed or felt, even subconsciously. It's definitely not science. Ideally the reality is more in line with your probabilities.
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I'm as pro-technology as it gets, an asymmetric advance in computing would have overwhelming positives despite the short-term negatives (gotta break some eggs and all that) but the facts on the ground bear out that there's nothing to QC... at all. Time machines would be cool too, but reality seems to have other plans.
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Cool story but what is this hunched based on?
The facts on the ground bear out that Quantum computing is no more likely to happen than someone inventing a time machine, and wrench attacking your mother before you're even born.