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My uninformed opinion is that quantum is real... But distant. Yes there will be quantum 'hacks' and/or exploits but they are long, long ways off.
Will humans visit mars one day? Yes. Will humans have permanent colonies on mars? Yes they will... Eventually.
But neither of these things will happen anytime soon because the engineering challenges of doing these things safely and actually bringing the astronauts back are immense. Extremely difficult on any short to medium time scale.
neither of these things will happen anytime soon
Fair enough and valid points about Mars for sure. Talk about human settlements on Mars, or on the moon even seem to me to many, many steps down the road. But, this "anytime soon" is what concerns me. 10 to 15 years falls into the "soon" category in my definition. Years come and go quickly. I remember 9/11 and the overall conclusion of "failure of imagination". Things, technology things in general, seem to be accelerating far faster than we can keep up. I'd hate to get caught napping because anytime soon won't come.
yeah, kudos. Precisely well specified too
I'm more optimistic than you that there will be some sort of mitigation for quantum that gets adopted
I'm happy to read this and I hope my prediction is totally wrong and laughable one day.
That said, I'm actually more optimistic about things than pessimistic. I compare it to a stubborn person who will not go to the doctor for medical treatment, even though it's needed. Eventually, the pain will be enough to get them into the office for treatment.
There are very smart people in bitcoin who I think will figure this out. To me, it's a case of aligned incentives...they'll realize that we all have a lot to gain with a solution and a lot to lose if bitcoin "goes to zero", and therefore it'll get remedied when we reach that break point.
I respect that you put your prediction down in public.
I'm more optimistic than you that there will be some sort of mitigation for quantum that gets adopted. Perhaps it will only be an opt-in commit-reveal scheme, or perhaps we will even soft fork in a new quantum resistant address type in the next 5 years.
But this doesn't mean that a quantum hack won't happen. I think that much will most certainly happen if a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is produced. But I'm thinking this happens when some portion of bitcoin holders have already taken some step to move to quantum resistant addresses.