White Americans are older (median age ~44) with lower fertility (~1.57), while Hispanic Americans are younger (median age ~30) with higher fertility (~1.97), and immigration skews heavily non-white.
Black Americans are closer to the middle on age and fertility (~1.64), so their share stays relatively stable.
Net: fewer white births + more non-white births/inflows → a declining white share, especially in younger cohorts.
That’s the mechanism behind the “losing the country” feeling.
They should do this right and show which countries have greater natality rates than mortality. Decent estimates of both numbers are available at the national level.
The teal to orange shift suggests a transition from population explosion concerns to labor shortage and pension sustainability challenges for most of the world.
If you run this same logic inside the U.S.:
White Americans are older (median age ~44) with lower fertility (~1.57), while Hispanic Americans are younger (median age ~30) with higher fertility (~1.97), and immigration skews heavily non-white.
Black Americans are closer to the middle on age and fertility (~1.64), so their share stays relatively stable.
Net: fewer white births + more non-white births/inflows → a declining white share, especially in younger cohorts.
That’s the mechanism behind the “losing the country” feeling.
Add to that the trend of declining life expectancy amongst whites and this pattern is even more striking.
They should do this right and show which countries have greater natality rates than mortality. Decent estimates of both numbers are available at the national level.
this?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/birth-rate-vs-death-rate
Yeah but as a map because maps are cool
There's no map version, and honestly, I don't even see how you'd map those two values out. Like, what’s the relation between them?
You'd map the difference. Birth rate - death rate = non-migration growth rate.
I thought we were all sterilized by now?
Every time a man talks to me all my reproductive organs astral projection somewhere else
So basically Africa owns the next generation of labour force
Fertility in Africa is falling just as rapidly as everywhere else.
The teal to orange shift suggests a transition from population explosion concerns to labor shortage and pension sustainability challenges for most of the world.