World history involves relations between peoples and states. It rarely has rules. It has even fewer rigid laws. This makes it difficult to predict the consequences of specific actions. However, historical behavior reveals a truth. Certain features of international relations remain unchanged. This holds true at least up to the present day.

The ancient Greeks called it thalassocracy (θᾰλᾰσσοκρᾰτῐ́ᾱ). This means the power a state can exert over the seas and navigation. Indeed, every empire seeking global hegemony has done this. They achieved it by maintaining long-term control over sea traffic. The Romans did it. The Byzantines did it. The Ottomans managed it for a while. The British did it powerfully. Some great civilizations never became long-lasting global powers. These include the Arabs, Russians, and Chinese. They had a major flaw. They were too unfamiliar with the seas and maritime activities. The Romans fought three wars against the Carthaginians. Carthage was their direct rival for control of the Mediterranean Sea. This conflict started Rome's own imperial journey. However, Napoleon's France lost its hegemonic struggle at sea. Wilhelm II's Germany and later the Nazis never managed to dominate the seas. The Japanese did it for a while. But they could not destroy another rising thalassocracy. That rival was the United States of America.

The ultimate fall of the British Empire was marked by a specific event. This was their humiliation in Suez in 1957. By then, another thalassocratic power had already taken over their role. This shift had started years earlier. This new power based its global dominance strictly on freedom of navigation. This was especially true in critical chokepoints like straits. Suez was one such strait. These are the channels connecting one sea to another.

The war against Iran involves many absurdities. These may mark the trajectory of American decline. The war started with several conditions. It is ending, if it ends at all, with the fulfillment of just one. That condition is opening the Strait of Hormuz. This runs parallel to a demand to stop inciting Yemen's Houthis against Red Sea navigation. That strait was not a hot issue before the war. It was open. Nobody threatened the free traffic through it. Yet that strait became a true nuclear weapon in Iranian hands. They enjoy a specific geographic advantage. It costs them nothing. It is a gift from God. Because of it, they can paralyze the global economy.

Tactically, the American victory in this war is highly doubtful. Their empire is based on moving warships across oceans. Strategically, however, they have lost convincingly. They also seem to be punishing all the Persian Gulf countries. These countries had previously focused on economic prosperity. They thrived because a global power controlled maritime freedom near their shores. Now, the leader of this power believes he can do the impossible. He thinks he can achieve what Alexander of Macedon could not. Alexander truly crossed and conquered Persia. But he died young. He died wearing Persian clothes. He looked more like an heir of Darius than a son of Philip. His sudden death was followed by the collapse of the Macedonian empire. It also led to the re-emergence of the Persian empire. This Persian presence remains on the stage to this day.