ICYMI: buy bitcoin at night!

...and in the dark, and KYC free #1467656

A famous financial anomaly is that the stock market mostly goes up when it’s closed: “Over at least the past three decades, investors have earned 100% or more of the return on a wide range of risky assets when the markets are closed, and, as sure as day follows night, have earned zero or negative returns for bearing the risk of owning those assets during the daytime, when markets are open,” as Victor Haghani, Vladimir Ragulin and Richard Dewey have put it. That is, stocks tend broadly to open higher than they closed the previous day, and then to go down a bit during the trading day. 

"Nobody quite knows why.""Nobody quite knows why."

and before you greedy fuckers ask, just like with all the other hundreds (millions?!) of stock marketing anomalies, they're competed into oblivion:

even if you know about it, you can’t make any money trading on it: The transaction costs of buying all the stocks every morning and selling them every afternoon would eat up all the profits.

My own crude intuitive assumption is that, because US public companies try not to release information during market hours, most of the fundamental information that causes stocks to rise over the long run is in fact released and assimilated at night. But that is not very rigorous, and nobody else seems to believe it.

TURNS OUT BITCOIN DOES TOO.

That should give us some clues as to what's (not?) going on... can't be off-market hours (bitcoin has none) and can't be release of fundamental info because..., well, bitcoin has none!

new fund:

The fund, managed by boutique wealth manager Nicholas Wealth, will take long Bitcoin exposure via swaps at 4 p.m. Eastern time and exit by 9:30 a.m. the following morning. During US trading hours, capital rotates into short-term Treasuries. It does not hold Bitcoin directly.

Additionally, there's a Satoshi Back segment off of Bryce Elder's Alphaville piece (#1468526 — gosh, you gotta give me credit for my posts being consistent and connected! — where Levine says:

We talked about Back’s crypto treasury company yesterday; I agree that it’s a little philosophically inconsistent and infra dig for Satoshi, but my impression is that everyone who founds a digital asset treasury company (1) has plenty of money and (2) is slumming it a little, so whatever. But as Elder says, this problem is not unique to Carreyrou’s proposal. Satoshi, everyone assumes, controls a stash of Bitcoin worth $70 billion that he has not touched in 16 years.
THUS, Satoshi is:

1. Dead
2. Living an implausibly modest lifestyle for someone with $70 billion of ready cash,
3. Hustling for money in a way unbecoming of someone with $70 billion of ready cash, or
4. Elon Musk. [4] (fn: "Really. People keep proposing him.")

OK, neither 2 nor 3 would be that uncommon; greedy get greedier, saintly get saintlier.

"If you think Satoshi is any living non-Musk candidate, you need an explanation for why he’s not living like a leisurely billionaire.""If you think Satoshi is any living non-Musk candidate, you need an explanation for why he’s not living like a leisurely billionaire."

yup.

and for the 1/3-version of the story (= keys are lost):

I do think that accidentally losing access to billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin is the very most Bitcoin thing a person could possibly do, and in particular the most 2010-era-Bitcoin thing a person could possibly do, so it stands to reason that Satoshi, the patron saint of Bitcoin, would have done it.

ALSO!.

gosh, I love this timeline.

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