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It wouldn't surprise me if the use of AI in China becomes banned or heavily manipulated like the internet. I could still see companies selling their international products abroad like they do with Bitcoin miners.

If it really is a winner takes all, then I don't think they can catch up to OpenAI or Anthropic. However, if we never see this AGI that everyone is competing for, and we have a plateauing effect, I think that Chinese AI will dominate and likely destroy the big US companies as they'll be able to make a cheaper product that is functionally the same.