Hey Stackers,
We’ve been building Predyx, a Lightning-native prediction market where markets are priced and settled directly in sats.
The idea is simple: prediction markets should work like the rest of Bitcoin - open, global, and programmable - with Lightning handling the payments layer.
A few design choices behind Predyx:
• Markets priced in sats (1 share = 1 sat payout if correct)
• Lightning pay-per-trade model (no deposits)
• LMSR market maker for automated pricing
• CDA (Continuous Double Auction) market engine in development
• UMA-style oracle system for market resolution in development
• Separate wallets per market to reduce custody risk
• Anyone can create markets and provide liquidity
The goal is to make micro prediction markets possible - things that only work when transactions are instant and extremely small.
Examples of markets currently running:
• Bitcoin price markets
• sports markets
• political outcomes
• tech and macro events
The beta is live and running, but the next stage requires capital and strategic help to scale:
• deeper liquidity across markets
• infrastructure scaling
• Lightning liquidity and integrations
• growth and distribution
• legal and regulatory work for U.S. compliance (CFTC)
If you’re a builder, Lightning node operator, or investor interested in Bitcoin-native financial infrastructure, I’d be interested in talking.
Happy to answer any technical questions here.
Any luck raising funds with VCs?
Yes. we have few meetings lined up with top Bitcoin native VCs in the coming weeks. Any other VC referrals will be greatly appreciated.
As many of the community members/users had expressed interest in funding PREDYX earlier. Thus, I also wanted to give the same opportunity and priority to the bitcoin community and our early adopters to become a part of PREDYX.
how as a SAFE note?
Most likely via a SAFE. Early supporters from the Bitcoin community will get priority access once the structure is finalized. We’re working through the legal details now.
Happy to chat if you're interested.
indeed what’s min investment?
Still finalizing the structure with our lawyers, but likely $10k–$25k for early community supporters.
Via what platform? also Odell is bearish on Predxy due the custodial lightning
Fair question. I understand Odell’s concern around custodial Lightning.
We’re also building a self-custodial version using Spark where YES/NO shares are tokenized and held alongside sats in self-custody.
The goal is simple: users should control both their sats and their market positions.
Sharing a quick demo below of the direction we’re heading.
Could be interested - would need to know full terms of the offer.
Thanks - I will share the details shortly sometime this week. What's the best email to reach you?
In short - if you choose to invest, you be a shareholder of PREDYX in the traditional way. We're incorporated in Delaware, DE, USA.
kiwiinvestor@proton.me
Thank you - I will reach out shortly sometime this week.
On that last bullet point, is there a reason you have to be US compliant? Can't you jurisdiction shop for the place that allows you to build the best product?
Anyone who's using a lightning-native prediction market will know how to find you wherever.
Exactly, Prospera is waiting for such usecase
Yes Prospera is great, at the same time it's also in Honduras. Not sure if you know the crime rates in Honduras. Having lived in Mexico myself, I've seen a lot of Honduras originated things first-hand.
Few reasons why we want to be US compliant is because:
However it's last on our list and totally dependent on funding. What prompted the CFTC approval was this particular bill: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9146-25 which allows for in-kind contract for derivatives market. Prior to this bill, there was no clear guidance for bitcoin denominated prediction(derivatives) markets.
Good luck!
Few typical questions:
Thanks!
Trading fees and market maker
229% user growth with 1.38 BTC trading volume in the last month. Over 2.2k total users.
Initially priority a company or to grow user-base, and a protocol later when smart-contract becomes viable on Bitcoin or Lightning. We've been playing around with cashu and spark for tokenized assets (for YES/NO shares) but none offers fully self-custodial solution. However there's some hope with @joemphilips's conditional token on cashu: https://github.com/cashubtc/nuts/pull/337
We believe CDA will solve a a lot of fragmented liquidity problem. We're building a hybrid CDA (can't divulge too much details - due to propriety algo), to be released within a month or two. You can experience the difference then, where smart money will automatically move to high demand markets with high volume.
I'm ready for the pitch deck sir
Thanks 🙏 Its coming your way sometime this week.
brad mills would probably throw some sats at you, zucco too. pinged them https://x.com/BITCOINALLCAPS/status/2031695686920495347?s=20
Thank you so much for helping spread the word. Much respect 🙏
If you have not be sustainable until now, how you do expect to be profitable in the future?
It's a natural progression of any Prediction Markets. The reason we're not sustainable now is due to the fact that we use AMM for market making.
The sustainability can only be achieved via CDA/CLOB limit order-books and trading fees.
However, launching CDA markets at the inception is recipe for disaster - as you'll only have unresponsive markets.
To bootstrap CDA markets, you'll need enough user traction that can only be achieved via AMM. It's like a chicken and an egg problem.
We expect to be sustainable when majority of our markets are driven solely by CDA.
How much funding are you looking for? Are you looking for dollars denominated funding or bitcoin denominated? Are you offering equity?
Thanks for considering us.
We're looking to offload 3-10% of the equity with crowdsourcing where the equity would be granted prorated to contribution. So yes, we're offering equity.
It will be dollar denominated, just like any traditional Delaware Corp.
Regarding how much - I can send the details over email. What's the best email to reach you?
link?
https://beta.predyx.com
I’ve retweeted it here.
https://x.com/joemphilips/status/2031639977105437074?s=46&t=PnHcxeDKW9XkaCqAji8BKQ
I’m just a developer myself, so I can’t help much on the financial side, though.
Thanks a lot @joemphilips.
https://i.postimg.cc/P5svWyyK/no-soup-for-you-soup.gif
YOU ARE DISGRACE FOR BITCOIN