pull down to refresh

After #1443117, I meant to check when the next earnings call was for Block to get some more info than just a tweet. Turned out that last night was the Q4/25 earnings call which touched upon this a lot - great orchestration there on Block's part - so there was no work for me to plan for the future, only action to be taken...

Below you will find some more elaboration from the transcript I've found most applicable after listening through the whole recording. I've edited out the verbal hesitations we all get to have during live Q&A to make it more readable, but have otherwise left the segments I selected intact [1]. We can do analysis in the comments.

Jack's additional introductionJack's additional introduction

We're making this change after delivering one of our strongest years. We set clear priorities for the year and we executed on all of them. In 2, gross profit growth more than doubled from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. We surpassed rule of 40 in the fourth quarter. We reignited Cash App network growth and engagement. We scaled our lending products and delivered strong returns. We accelerated square GPV growth and had our strongest new volume added year on record. We shipped our first proto units and we increased share repurchases to return more capital to shareholders. We have conviction in achieving the long-term financial targets we laid out at investor day and are meaningfully raising our initial outlook for 2.

We know how to grow this business and this decision today is a choice about how we operate it going forward. The core the core thesis is simple. Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company. We're already seeing it internally. A significantly smaller team using the tools we're building can do more and do it better. An intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every single week. I don't think we're early to this realization. I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes. I'd rather get there honestly and our on our own terms than be forced into it reactively.

And this isn't just about efficiency. Block serves millions of customers, sellers and consumers who are going to feel the economic effects of this same ship. Small businesses that rely on us to get paid, to manage their money, to access capital. individuals navigating a financial landscape that's changing fast. Our job is to help them navigate it through it. That's not a new mission for us, but the urgency behind it is more pronounced, and the speed at which we need to deliver is accelerating. So, here's how we're going to operate from here.

First, intelligence will be at the core of how the entire company works. How we make decisions, how we build trust and manage risk, how we build products, and how we serve customers. We're moving toward a model where our customers can build their own features directly on top of our capabilities. That changes the nature of what we are as a company and it dramatically increases the value we can deliver for customer.

Second, extreme focus. There are four things we're going to focus on building now as a company. customer capabilities, interfaces where we can compose and deliver those capabilities, proactive intelligence based on our deep customer understanding and real-time data, and an intelligence model to fully orchestrate the company's operations. This allows us to best serve the master plan we laid out at investor day. And third, speed. A company of our new size has no excuse for being slow. We will decide faster, ship faster, and learn faster. The structure we're building is designed exactly for that. We believe Block will be significantly more valuable as a smaller, faster intelligence native company. Everything we do from here is in service of that.

To the question from JPMTo the question from JPM

Why are you ready to make this change now?
There's a there's a few things that have all been compounding towards this moment in this time. As you know we have been working very hard to functionalize the company. That's a big part of what gives us more confidence in making this move. We were operating a company with basically two companies with inside of it both having their own structure, a lot of duplication and as we functionalized it allowed us to act more like one company and recognize where there are common capabilities and common foundation. and we're still doing a lot of that work, but I have the confidence that we're in a place that we can move much faster there.

I also believe that we were the first agentic harness out in the market. This is Goose. But something happened in December of last year where the models just got an order of magnitude more capable and more intelligent. And it's really shown a path forward in terms of us being able to apply it to nearly every single thing that we do. So if there are any gaps in our usage of of AI right now, it's application gap and I'm really confident that we can go through the majority of our organization certainly our development but the majority of our organization and apply these tools in a much stronger way that has the effect of allowing us to ship much faster to explore a lot of the paths much broader so we can run the right experiments and get to the right answers and give feedback immediately for product market fit and ultimately to operate more and more of the company in a way that I think all companies will eventually go.

I do think the tools are at a state right now where every single company out there is going to run and grow in a fundamentally different way and be structured in a fundamentally different way. And a big part of me wanting to do this right now is I wanted to get ahead of it. And I'm confident that we've laid the foundation in order to do that and to push really fast to to get there. So we're in a place where like a lot of what we've been working with and all these threads are coming together in the right moment.

I want to make sure that we're ahead of the market, ahead of our customers expectations and actually building for the future. I do believe that a lot of the expectation going forward is not just that we deliver intelligence to our customers through managerbot and moneybot for instance, but the very end of that is that they can build their own features and build their own visualizations on top of our capabilities through our interfaces. We have incredible distribution. We have incredible understanding in real time of real transactional data on both sides of the counter and we can proactively prompt our customers and we can proactively compose interfaces that will fit the task before them which I think is quite unique and not something that you can find certainly at other companies in our space but but also more broadly in in technology.

And you know, I intend that that we that we win in this space and that we and that we grow and bring this intelligence to both sellers and to individuals and ideally to bring them together into this one ecosystem we're calling neighborhoods.

To the question from Cantor FitzgeraldTo the question from Cantor Fitzgerald

Do you see AI as a new competitive vector where Block has an opportunity to sort of leapfrog competitors or redefine the competitive landscape? What gives you guys the right to win here? What are Block's competitive advantages in AI?
Yeah, I do. I think it goes back to those four things that we we want to focus on right now in terms of what we build as a company. The first that sets us apart is all of our capabilities that we've built up over time. That's everything from our network and peer-to-peer. It's the fact that we can issue cards that we can accept cards that we can lend money to sellers and individuals. These are very very hard to acquire as capabilities and they're hard to maintain.

And these these are things that represent exact use cases that customers are coming to us in the first place for. When you pair that with the interface we have a massive install interface on the Square side with our merchants. We have the same on the Cash App side through an app and the website. What we'll be able to do is compose these capabilities fluidly to deliver them to all of our customers in real time in a much more personalized way in a way that they're going to feel like they can actually build their features and their functionality themselves. I think that's a significant advantage.

I think the biggest advantage though is our understanding of our customers. We have an understanding of both sides of the counter. We have real time data which is very real transactional data and we can connect it from the merchant to the consumer and we can actually use that understanding to be a lot more proactive. Instead of our customers coming to our intelligence systems and knowing what question to ask and what to prompt the AI, we can actually prompt our customers and we can do it in the right time so that they can have an experience where they have an intelligent system that is looking to protect their business and to protect their individual finances and help them along whatever goals they might have.

And these are out today and something that we're going to continue to build on. And then finally is making sure that we're using this intelligence and we're building these world models to help us orchestrate the company much better and be a whole lot more efficient about how we work and how we deliver and and how we ship.

I know all four of those together really set us apart and a big part of the the move we made today was to get us in position to do just that and to to be ahead of our customers expectations and to be ahead of the curve and and actually being able to deliver that new functionality.
  1. No GPU ticks other than for my screen were burned in the creation of this post; 100% manual meatbag work.

269 sats \ 14 replies \ @Scoresby 9h
I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.

I've been doubtful that AI job cuts were gonna be as big as people say. This certainly makes me reevaluate that. It will be very curious if this prediction of his does not come true.

But, if it does...this year...that would be some serious chaos.

reply
294 sats \ 10 replies \ @k00b 4h

I don't think these are AI layoffs. I think they were going to make these layoffs anyway. AI made them do it faster, differently perhaps. I think this is a 2-for-1 deal in investor signaling: (1) we are cost efficient, profits will go up (2) we are serious about AI.

If AI makes every person more productive, why would you want fewer people? If AI allows you to produce more with fewer people, you can produce tons more with more people.

There's a kind of duplicity required to be a lovable king - ruthless yet able to frame unpopular decisions as caused by adjacent/external/correlated/plausible things. Jack is good at it.

reply
I think they were going to make these layoffs anyway

Somewhat agree. But now every fintech/software CEO with a hardon for 20% stonks NgU will c&p this playbook, so the effect may be the same?

reply
117 sats \ 8 replies \ @k00b 4h

Effect will be the same.

IMO all of the AI market doom is the post-covid interest rate hikes manifesting. But that happened a long time ago, AI is happening now, and people have short memories.

reply

I really like that thought. I'm skeptical of many things, but I do have a weak spot for Jack so maybe that's a problem.

Bottom line however, does it really matter if (A) or (B) is the cause of the total destruction of people's livelihoods? I think that's the thing we're anyway seeing, no matter the excuse. Yeah, ZIRP is gone, and y'all got an extra paycheck from the Rona. But it's still destructive and I don't know what to do. I cannot think of a means to survive for the urban masses that are getting hit.

And that sucks. I'd like to build a solution.

reply
117 sats \ 3 replies \ @k00b 3h
I do have a weak spot for Jack so maybe that's a problem.

Jack is a sigma CEO. I have a weak spot for that too. He's still a CEO and does all the brutal things CEOs are required to do.

reply

Today was the third or fourth time I listened to one of his earnings calls and yeah, he's definitely sigma. Of course he has to do the brutal stuff, that's what the E is for. If you don't want that shit, stay a T or an O. I know, been all 3, with varying results - especially on the E.

However, I'm not ready to call bull on the entire thing. Justin and I discussed the "pairs instead of teams" thing the other day and we came to some similar conclusions that Jack was talking about. And he's not firing 60%, which means that control is tightening upstream.

Re: hiring back, there was definitely a point made about that somewhere, in a single sentence, but this is what I'm not 100% sure about, and I think neither are they. Because you need to design the product synergy to employ those extra people and expand your business. I don't think they're ready for that, because the roadmap they talk to isn't concrete yet. So they already have all these people allocated to the plan, they're going to speed up and lean up. Which is good.

At least they dared talking about precision as well as speed at a single point in the entire call. That is key. You don't wanna be a consumer yolocorp, because Karen willl have your ass.

reply
117 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 3h
I'm not ready to call bull on the entire thing

It's not bull. It's a real correlate. I'd guess earnings they were seeing data that earnings could tighten, understood that AI would allow them to reduce costs, and reduced costs. The cause imho was earnings and org bloat. AI is a scapegoat.

AI is an amazing scapegoat. In this way, AI imitating humans is blessing. This time, we have near-humans to blame for all the world's ills rather than humans with different beliefs/location/politics.

117 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 4h

I think they'll be rehired. Every hirable person I know is working more post-AI than pre-AI because work is easier now. Companies that weren't bloated during ZIRP will slurp all of that up.

reply

Interesting. I guess I need to lower my standards next interview lol

reply
219 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 4h

I think about this interview with Bridgewater's CIO often: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDNXh4yYACM

reply

I've been throwing automated research questions to AIs about what the SotA ideas of the overlords are about how to solve this and all I truly get back is that the WEF thinks that we all must get UBI, yesterday.

If Jack is right, then it's going to be turbulent. Though I still appreciate what JPM is doing

reply
117 sats \ 1 reply \ @Artilektt 6h

Am I crazy that I don't see how UBI solves anything because it will create inflation that negates the value of the UBI? This seems obvious to me maybe I'm missing something. You can't just give people money, it is known.

reply

I don't think you're crazy, but I don't know if I'm crazy, so that can either be positive or negative. Either way, let's be crazy.

reply
if there are any gaps in our usage of of AI right now, it's application gap

This is how I feel too. Everything I haven't automated yet is because I haven't developed the framework for automating it yet. Most often because I just haven't gotten to it and there are many cases where it's not rewarding enough versus what else is open: there is lower hanging fruit. [1]

the very end of that is that they can build their own features and build their own visualizations on top of our capabilities through our interfaces.

API-first. This is what I personally love to hear, because it shows what I've seen, and not some Huang LARP bullcrap where AI is using your browser and other GUI apps[2]. That's just inefficiency to work around the software industry largely not thinking in standalone programmatic interfaces to deliver functionality previously. And in banking it's particularly bad if you're looking for easy integrations, even after a decade of mandatory PSD2 APIs in Europe, it's very hard to find good APIs that are easy to onboard. So from a tech p.o.v., I think this is the right move.

Instead of our customers coming to our intelligence systems and knowing what question to ask and what to prompt the AI, we can actually prompt our customers and we can do it in the right time so that they can have an experience where they have an intelligent system that is looking to protect their business and to protect their individual finances and help them along whatever goals they might have.

This feels somewhat dangerous in the face of Third Party Doctrine. Having a conversation with a third party about your finances while we see police states expanding rapidly - without any respect for the individual and their privacy - while maximizing their intelligence towards political goals, is a self-own. So this may become (or perhaps already is) a massive honeypot. This worries me, but not the most.

I don't think we're early to this realization. I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.

Structurally, this would mean a massive unemployment problem if it really all happens within a year. I'm having trouble this morning to apply Let no good crisis go to waste towards this. But that's what's most needed now: How can we avoid UBI?

PS:

What gives you guys the right to win here?

This is such a sad fucking question that it made me laugh

  1. Funnily though, automated money management carries the least priority for me, which is the entire functional area that Jack is serving, but this is also because I largely operate outside of compliance regimes (which I suspect is going to bite me hard when you're all on UBI and I'm out there not getting any work either, and no UBI, but I guess I just have to work harder now and conquer my part of the world before retiring. tick tock.)

  2. Post-2005, every (huge) commercial system I've designed has been API-first and API-foremost, and focused on simplicity of integration and extendability. This has hurt some stakeholder confidence in the past because they wanted to see slick apps and websites first, which were of lesser concern during foundational systems development, but those that accepted the vision of doing API really well to prepare for the future are now up to 2 decades ahead over the laggards.

reply
295 sats \ 2 replies \ @crrdlx 9h

Yesterday, I went to the doctor. Prominently displayed was a "Bitcoin preferred" sign and they used a snazzy little Square point of sale device. Nice to see that sort of thing in the wild.

reply

I keep paying at a merchant with a square terminal and the merchant doesn't know / doesn't care, about the bitcoin option.

But nice to know they can opt into that after each time I am there I kvetch to them about them not having it.

reply

That is awesome.

reply

Jack gets a lot of grief (some of it well-earned), but I honestly don't think I've see layoffs done as humanely as this. Of course, it's still a layoff, but if any of the jobs that had laid me off in the past had given me months of pay, half a year of health coverage, let me keep my computer, and thrown cash at me on top of that? Those layoffs would at least have involved a lot less money stress.

reply
130 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism OP 9h

I've only been layed off once, right before the dotcom crash. I got 2*month-for-year (it was nice because that was 8 months and it took me (only) 2 months to get a new job.)

reply

My first layoff was pretty decent, actually -- I got six months salary and benefits (I'd been there for 15 years), and got a job right at the end of that period (so no double dipping, but at least no dipping into savings). Second one, though, was brutal. Got a month's severance and took me a year to find a job.

reply
117 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 10h
We shipped our first proto units

Clearly not to me!

Great break down of the call! As a shareholder I feel much more informed

reply

There's a lot more in the call if you're looking for shareholder metrics. All in all it wasn't awful to listen to.

reply
reply

The decision to reduce team size while increasing speed is a deliberate bet that AI can take over coordination and execution layers traditionally handled by human operators. If the models really have reached that much more capability since December it explains why they are doing it now. But the bigger insight here is the integration of products and services across both sides of the counter. This is not just automation it is a platform strategy where intelligence sits between merchant and consumer with Block owning that interaction space.

The competitive moat described is difficult to replicate because it relies on both the breadth of financial capabilities issued through Square and Cash App and the depth of real time transaction data. Competitors without that data infrastructure will struggle to match proactive intelligence at scale.

reply
17 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ohtis 12h -21 sats

The interesting part isn’t the headcount reduction — it’s the org design shift. Smaller, functionalized, intelligence-native. If they execute, speed becomes the moat.

17 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ohtis 3h -21 sats

Interesting that they’re thinking beyond just automation — it’s about orchestration and proactive support. That’s a subtle but huge difference.