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it's hard for me to imagine that actually happening.
Why is that? It's hard for me to imagine a bitcoin future that doesn't have extensive heatpunkery.
I would have expected self-custody to be an integral part of the bitcoin future, but here we are with etfs, exchange accounts, and treasury companies seemingly as the primary way people want to interact with bitcoin.
Do you expect heatpunkery (awesome morph of the term, sir!) to be more popular than self-custody?
Yes. I expect it to become the default for electric heating and eventually displace gas heating.
The business model might not require self-custody. Perhaps manufacturers will sell products at a discount to cost while receiving mining output. Or, maybe they'll just come preset with some custodial LN situation for receiving sats.
anyone working on a bitcoin miner oven?
I don't think existing electronics like working at oven temperatures, and the miners would need to reach a higher temperature in order to create a gradient driving heat towards the oven.
I'm not a miner, but my understanding is that something like a BitAxe gamma is 100x less powerful than a typical industrial miner. So I would think the hash rate would be quite a bit lower than it is now if we were only relying on hobbyist miners.
Maybe there is a world where such miners get included in heatpunk applications (space heaters, hot water heaters, anyone working on a bitcoin miner oven?) and there are such devices are so widespread that a significant amount of hash power is generated this way, but it's hard for me to imagine that actually happening.
I suppose the important thing for bitcoin security is the relative hashpower -- if there aren't very many industrial miners out there, then perhaps the hobbyists provide enough security. But in that scenario, I wonder what has happened to all the ASICs...