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Would like to see some back-testing on their announced purchase prices with the prior week price correlation. That might remove some guessing.
@Scoresby collected the data. I am hoping to do some of exactly that, but it might take me a while to get to it, since I've been way too busy this semester.
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MSTR means Most Interesting
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Not master??
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true true true, don't think I considered that there might be a longer lag than a week in their "production line" (money raising -> fiat stash -> bitcoin purchase -> announcement)
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Would like to see some back-testing on their announced purchase prices with the prior week price correlation. That might remove some guessing.
I always assumed purchase announcements were a week lagged, which in a down market always makes the the purchase price seem too high, but should in theory be the reverse in an up market.
I base the assumption on the logical progression of raising in week 1 via share/debt sales, buy in week 2 after settlement of that sales/filing (call that Monday), then announce week 3 after those filings (Monday). Filings and settlement probably tie their hands on execution/announcement timing.
I'm don't think shooting the shot completely on Monday-Tuesday is necessarily bad, it's still DCA over time. In an up market, if we pumped on a Weds, that's no better or worse than getting dumped on Weds in a down market.
It's also possible whoever is managing their execution is using oscillators during week 2... looking back at last week the 78k number is consistent a break of the lower RSI.