Let's connect the dots with logic!

2️⃣ Trump's Pivot (Trade Balance)

Yesterday, Trump celebrated the fall of the Dollar ("I think it's great").

His focus is on reducing the American trade deficit as much as possible. He knows that he cannot reindustrialize the US or fight China with a strong currency.

To bring factories back, he needs to devalue the currency. The market understood: it's the end of the "Strong Dollar" policy.

3️⃣ The Siege of the Fed (Forced Interest Rates)

Rhetoric is accompanied by action. Trump intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates "at any cost," undermining the institution's independence.

The market is already pricing in the obvious: soon, he will choose a new chairman of the US central bank fully aligned with his thesis of low interest rates and a competitive dollar. Without his "technical guardian" (Powell), the currency weakens.

4️⃣ The Value (We're Still on Top)

Here's the fact that many ignore: despite the recent drop, the Dollar remains historically strong.

If we look at the global conversion rate in real terms, the currency is still trading near decade highs.

What does this mean? That the current drop is not the "bottom," it's just a part of the correction.

There's still a lot of fat to trim down to the historical average.

5️⃣ The Breakdown of Trust (Sanctions)

The problem runs deeper.

The weakness accelerated when the US used the dollar as a political weapon (freezing Russian reserves).

If the currency is not neutral, it is risky.

Global central banks stopped buying American debt (Treasuries) to avoid becoming hostages.

Institutional investors diversified their reserves of value.

Gold shone again.

6️⃣ The "Anti-Money" (The Structural Rally)
Where did the money go?

To assets that cannot be printed or frozen.

The commodities boom proves the flight from fiat risk. Even after soaring in 2025, this is the performance in 2026:

🥇 Gold: +20%
🥈 Silver: +50%

The world is exchanging paper (politicized dollar) for physical backing.

7️⃣ The Brazilian Magnet (Carry Trade)

The investor sees the Dollar falling and the Real cheap.

He makes a Carry Trade: He sells Dollars, buys Reais and invests in the Brazilian Selic rate.

The Trick: He wins twice.

1- He profits from the difference in Brazil's stratospheric interest rate (11.5% p.a.).

2- He profits from currency appreciation.