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Fair point on the terminology. Whether we call it a 'Bull Flag' or a 'fractal pullback for liquidity absorption,' we’re basically looking at the same price action through different lenses. Labels aside, the core of my thesis is the spot demand vs. supply exhaustion we’re seeing on-chain.
I’m curious though—if we get that sweep below $80k you're expecting, what’s the logic behind the second impulse failing to make new highs? With exchange reserves at multi-year lows and the halving effects fully baked into the supply side by now, a failed expansion would be a massive outlier. Would love to hear your reasoning on why the macro trend would break there
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This type of chart analysis is ineffective; charts do not draw flags, triangles, or anything similar. The price only does one thing: absorb liquidity and move in a fractal manner. A fractal consists of only three movements: first impulse, a pullback, and a second impulse or expansion. Right now, the price is pulling back, as the first impulse ended, starting from 15k to the previous ATH high. This pullback still has the capacity to see prices below 80k, and then at some point, the second impulse or expansion will begin, which will not lead to new highs.