Monday saw new records.

Gold and silver continue to rise.

The reason goes beyond Trump and Greenland: there's a physical supply crisis in China that has quadrupled the premium in Shanghai.

Has the market crashed?

2️⃣ New Records on Screen!

Metals ignored any resistance and renewed (again!) their all-time highs this Monday:
🥇 Gold: +1.71% to US$ 4.674/oz.
🥈 Silver: Explosion of +5.06% to US$ 93.02/oz.

It's the ultimate refuge against global uncertainty.

3️⃣ The Newest Trigger: Trump and Greenland

The current driver is the fear of another trade war.

With Trump announcing 10% tariffs (rising to 25% in June) on Europe until he gets Greenland, capital is fleeing European stocks (Auto sector -2.2%, Luxury -2.9%) and going straight into metals.

4️⃣ Gold: Infinite Demand
This is the silent "driver."

Central banks continue to aggressively diversify their reserves, moving away from debt securities (Dollar/Euro) and accumulating physical gold.

As long as there is a risk of sanctions or asset freezes (as seen in Russia and now threatened in Europe), gold is the neutral sovereign store of value.

5️⃣ Real Interest Rates Falling
The macroeconomic projection is that real interest rates (interest rate minus inflation) will fall.

Gold does not pay dividends.

When real interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making it more attractive than bonds (government securities).

6️⃣ Explosive Profit Margins
For those investing in mining companies, this is the most important piece of data:

At the current price, mining companies' profit margins should be 4 to 5 times higher than they were in 2024.

Companies are printing money. The cost of extraction has not risen at the same rate as the price of the metal.

7️⃣ Silver: The Shanghai Premium ($11/oz)

After rising 200% since the beginning of 2025, here's the new data that algorithms are hunting.

The premium (agio) of silver in Shanghai over the Western price hit a record high of $11/oz.

This spread quadrupled in just a few weeks. The previous record was $7 in 2011!

8️⃣ Impossible Arbitrage?

In practice, silver is worth US$105 in China while it costs US$94 in the West.

This indicates a severe physical shortage in the Asian country.

Domestic industrial demand (solar panels and EVs) has "gotten out of control," and Chinese export restrictions are drying up the global market.

9️⃣ Systemic Disorganization
It's not just about Europe (Greenland and Ukraine) and interest rates. Investors are digesting a combination of risks:

1. US control of Venezuelan oil.
2. Military threats to Iran.
3. Criminal investigation by the Department of Justice against Jerome Powell (Fed).
4. Enormous investments in defense/military.
5. Endless spending on AI infrastructure.