If you are reading this, you probably have strong opinions about AGI, superintelligence, and the future of AI. Maybe you believe we are on the cusp of a transformative breakthrough. Maybe you are skeptical. This blog post is for those who want to think more carefully about these claims and examine them from a perspective that is often missing in the current discourse: the physical reality of computation.

I have been thinking about this topic for a while now, and what prompted me to finally write this down was a combination of things: a Twitter thread, conversations with friends, and a growing awareness that the thinking around AGI and superintelligence is not just optimistic, but fundamentally flawed. The purpose of this blog post is to address what I see as very sloppy thinking, thinking that is created in an echo chamber, particularly in the Bay Area, where the same ideas amplify themselves without critical awareness. This amplification of bad ideas and thinking exhuded by the rationalist and EA movements, is a big problem in shaping a beneficial future for everyone. Realistic thought can be used to ground where we are and where we have to go to shape a future that is good for everyone.

I want to talk about hardware improvements, AGI, superintelligence, scaling laws, the AI bubble, and related topics. But before we dive into these specific areas, I need to establish a foundation that is often overlooked in these discussions. Let me start with the most fundamental principle.

Contents

• Computation is Physical
• Linear Progress Needs Exponential Resources
• GPUs No Longer Improve
• Why Scaling Is Not Enough
• Frontier AI Versus Economic Diffusion
• AGI Will Never Happen, and Superintelligence Is a Fantasy
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...read more at timdettmers.com